T3 Defense Inc (DFNS)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.29-19.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DFNS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DFNS — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity
Dated 2026-10-29
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On October 22, 2026, T3 Defense Inc. (the “Company”) consummated the sale of 200 units for an aggregate purchase price of $10,000,000, or a per unit price of $50,000, with each unit consisting of (i) one share of Series B Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Series B Preferred Stock”), and (ii) common stock purchase warrants to initially purchase up to 14,851 shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share of the Company (…
Why it matters: The deal adds sales channels, but closing needs Nasdaq notice and other consents. A delay would push back the planned sales link.
Watch forA company filing confirms the deal closed by December 26, 2026, within 60 days of signing.
Also watch forThe company reports the deal did not close by December 26, or says a required consent blocks closing.
Why it matters: The order is Rimon's first tied to European air-defense production. Delivery would show progress beyond Israel.
Supportive ifA company update confirms delivery of the $1.3 million order. It also confirms the order added to revenue.
Worry ifThe company reports the order was delayed, reduced, or canceled. Or it says the order did not add to revenue.
Why it matters: Management reaffirmed $26 million in 2026 revenue. The supplied quarterly figures add up to about $11.6 million through Q3.
Watch forReported 2026 revenue reaches at least $26 million for the full year.
Also watch forReported 2026 revenue is below $26 million for the full year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$642 on $10,000 · ±6.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,895 loss on $10,000 · 18.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,969 loss on $10,000 · 99.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.