Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Donegal Group, Inc. (DGICA)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.96-0.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.90 → 1.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DGICA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stable management and governance | A supporting condition in Donegal Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is no further negative governance events next 12 months. | Under Pressure | additional negative regulatory or governance events occur | 2 negative governance events vs 0 target KPMG dismissed June 2026; Gary Anderson legal issues September 2026. Multiple negative governance events occurred. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap insurer with a performance-led long-term thesis, rather than a clear growth or turnaround story. Recent results and momentum improved, but the thesis remains only moderately supported because execution on stated priorities is mixed.
The available valuation evidence tags expectations as justified, with low signs of fragility and a negative expectations gap. This suggests the market setup is not flagged as unusually stretched, though the evidence does not provide a peer comparison or a clear measure of how much future improvement is assumed.
Near term, recent earnings beats and performance in the top half of the industry support the business setup, while the Q3 combined ratio rose from Q2 and premiums earned declined year over year. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on turning repeated priorities around underwriting discipline, profitable growth, and digital operations into measurable results; current evidence of delivery is mixed.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The outlook also depends on rates: the evidence flags rate cuts from the current level as a sector headwind, while continued high rates have tended to support Financials.
The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact but not firmly established: recent performance is strong, yet premium growth and execution remain uneven. Key evidence is medium-confidence, and guidance, rates, and underwriting results are the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Donegal Group keeps growing premiums modestly through independent agents. |
| Broken |
| revenue growth falls below 0.5% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operational profitability despite revenue fluctuations | It aims to maintain operational profit despite revenue swings. | Intact | operating income turns negative or declines sharply below $14M | Operating income: $27.548M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income remains positive and stable next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202627,547,623 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.90 → $1.90 · observed estimates
$0.93B → $0.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.90 | $929,156,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.88 | $976,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.90 | $929,156,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.88 | $976,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.88 | $976,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.90 | $929,156,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.90 | $929,156,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.88 | $976,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.93 | $960,136,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.93 | $960,136,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.93 | $960,136,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.88 | $947,236,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.88 | $947,236,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.88 | $947,236,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.88 | $947,236,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.88 | $947,236,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.88 | $947,236,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.93 | $900,220,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.90 | $885,370,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.