Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.02-5.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DJT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 897.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 874.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
DJT — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-08-07
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Termination of Business Combination Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 25, 2025, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., a Florida corporation (“TMTG”) entered into a Business Combination Agreement (the “Business Combination Agreement”), by and among (a) TMTG, (b) Yorkville Acquisition Corp., a Cayman Islands exempted company (“SPAC”), (c) YA S3 Inc., a Florida corporation and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“SPAC Sub…
Why it matters: Ongoing losses would confirm the company's weak financial health and cautious outlook.
Worry ifJuly earnings report shows losses greater than the previous quarter's losses.
Less concerning ifJuly earnings report shows a reduction in losses or a profit.
Why it matters: New features and content can drive user engagement and revenue growth.
Supportive ifThere will be big updates to Truth Social and Truth+ in Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo major updates or enhancements announced for Truth Social and Truth+ in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if TMTG is improving its financial performance and cash flow.
Watch forEarnings results are good. Revenue and cash flow are better.
Also watch forEarnings results show continued net losses and low revenue.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the company runs well and can grow.
Supportive ifCash from operations stays above $17.9M in future quarters.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $17.9M in future quarters.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$318 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $626 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,993 loss on $10,000 · 59.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Truth API is a new revenue stream. Its success could improve TMTG's financial health.
Supportive ifTruth API generates over $2 million in revenue in the next quarter.
Worry ifTruth API revenue remains below $1 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for the sector may show a recovery. This could help DJT.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: This deal could drive future growth. Any progress signals a positive direction for the company.
Supportive ifLook for a formal announcement about the deal with TAE Technologies.
Worry ifNo news or delays about the deal with TAE Technologies.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company direction and plans. Stability helps keep investor trust.
Worry ifNo more executive changes or shifts in leadership.
Less concerning ifLook for more changes in executives or issues in leadership.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means better money management. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow will be positive. It will exceed $5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains negative in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Narrowing losses would show improvement in the company's financial health. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income losses decrease further from -$293M in Q1 to less than -$250M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income losses remain at -$293M or worsen in Q2.
Why it matters: Increasing customer count for Truth API shows strong demand and revenue growth potential.
Supportive ifTruth API customer count reaches 30 or more by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifCustomer count stays below 20 by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is crucial for TMTG's growth and long-term value creation.
Supportive ifMerger with TAE Technologies is finalized by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifMerger is delayed beyond Q4 2026 or falls through.
Why it matters: Lower legal costs will help make more money. This will allow focus on growth.
Supportive ifLegal expenses drop below $20 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLegal expenses remain above $25 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that platform improvements are working. It also shows market acceptance.
Supportive ifTruth Social and Truth+ revenue growth exceeds 100% YoY in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY in Q3 2026.