Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.02-10.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DJT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 450.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 427.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
DJT — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-08-07
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Termination of Business Combination Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 25, 2025, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., a Florida corporation (“TMTG”) entered into a Business Combination Agreement (the “Business Combination Agreement”), by and among (a) TMTG, (b) Yorkville Acquisition Corp., a Cayman Islands exempted company (“SPAC”), (c) YA S3 Inc., a Florida corporation and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“SPAC Sub…
Why it matters: TMTG named the TAE merger its top long-term priority. A close would complete a major step in that plan.
Supportive ifTMTG and TAE complete the merger in Q4 2026, after required approvals and closing steps.
Worry ifThe merger misses its Q4 2026 target. Or, a filing reports a delay, failed approval, or termination.
Why it matters: Truth API is a new source of recurring revenue. More customers could grow sales beyond the current small base.
Supportive ifA company update reports more customers than the mid-teens cited in August. API revenue rises from Q2's $1.7 million.
Worry ifA company update reports fewer active customers. Or, API revenue falls below Q2's $1.7 million.
Why it matters: The S-4 and vote are named steps toward the planned merger. A delay could push the Q4 closing target out.
Supportive ifTMTG files the S-4, gains required approval, and sets a shareholder vote in time for a Q4 closing.
Worry ifThe S-4 or shareholder vote is delayed beyond Q4, or TMTG discloses a major new closing condition.
Why it matters: The feed gives paid users a 50-millisecond edge. New limits could ease the stated concern, while no change leaves it in place.
Watch forTMTG says in a filing or product update that paid early-access feeds exclude presidential posts.
Also watch forTMTG confirms paid customers still get presidential posts with the 50-millisecond edge.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$280 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $654 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,209 loss on $10,000 · 72.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: TMTG said settled legal cases would cut costs. Lower legal bills could ease pressure on its large operating loss.
Supportive ifThe next results show legal expenses below $25.6 million, the Q2 level.
Worry ifThe next results show legal expenses at or above $25.6 million.