Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.38+1.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DNUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DNUT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Company's financial results for the second quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorpo…
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target of $1.25B to $1.35B is key for the turnaround plan.
Supportive ifQ2 net revenue growth shows at least a 3% increase year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 net revenue growth is below 0% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Keeping an Adjusted EBITDA margin above 8% shows good efficiency and profit. It helps the turnaround.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was over 8%. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin dropped below 8%. This means there are some problems.
Why it matters: A drop below $300 million shows problems in the turnaround plan. Refranchising and door closures may hurt sales more than expected.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue was below $300 million. This shows continued struggles.
Less concerning ifQ3 net revenue was above $300 million. This suggests sales are recovering.
Why it matters: New refranchising deals can give the company more financial options. They also support long-term growth.
Supportive ifIf one or two new refranchising deals are announced in 2026, it shows strategic progress.
Worry ifIf no new refranchising deals are announced in 2026, it suggests slower growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $605 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,787 loss on $10,000 · 37.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings performance is important after the recent earnings miss. It can affect investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings were at or above what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were below what analysts expected.
Why it matters: This partnership could enhance growth prospects and market reach in the Western U.S.
Supportive ifNew projects or expansions are announced from the partnership.
Worry ifThere are no updates or bad news about the partnership.
Why it matters: This growth shows that the company's turnaround plans are working.
Supportive ifSystemwide sales grew by 2% to 4% compared to last year.
Worry ifSystemwide sales grew by less than 1% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A better margin shows the company is working better. It is making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was over 9% for Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 8% for Q2.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows the company can make cash. This helps improve financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow was above $15 million. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow is negative or below $15 million. This shows ongoing cash problems.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows the turnaround plan is working. It shows demand and better operations.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue reported between $1.25B and $1.35B.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue falls below $1.25B.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows good financial health. It helps support growth plans and shows good cost control.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $15 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative or below $15 million.
Why it matters: More sales from franchises show that the refranchising plan is working. This helps growth over time.
Supportive ifFranchise sales make up about 50% of total sales.
Worry ifFranchise-operated sales do not grow or go down.
Why it matters: Staying within this capex range shows disciplined spending. It supports the turnaround plan and growth strategy.
Watch forCapital spending is between $50 million and $60 million.
Also watch forCapital spending goes over $60 million.