Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.60+30.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DNUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 97.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 104.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DNUT — officer change
Dated 2026-11-05
CEO — Joshua Charlesworth: The filing discloses an amendment to the CEO's employment agreement regarding compensation, not a change in management personnel.
Why it matters: First-half free cash flow was negative $6.1 million. The company still aims to exceed $15 million for 2026.
Worry ifFull-year free cash flow is at or below $15 million, or the company cuts its goal to exceed $15 million.
Less concerning ifThe company reports positive Q3 free cash flow and keeps its goal above $15 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 results on November 5 will show whether Krispy Kreme can keep its 2026 revenue goal. Revenue fell in Q2 as the company refranchised and closed shops.
Watch forQ3 net revenue and updated full-year guidance point to at least $1.25 billion in 2026 revenue.
Also watch forThe company cuts its 2026 revenue outlook below $1.25 billion, or Q3 results make that floor unlikely.
Why it matters: Net leverage was 5.4x in Q2, and the 2026 goal is below 5.5x. Debt reduction remains a stated part of the turnaround.
Worry ifYear-end net leverage is below 5.5x, as the company guided.
Less concerning ifYear-end net leverage is 5.5x or higher, or the company raises its target.
Why it matters: The company cut first-half spending by 70% year over year, while keeping its full-year target. Spending above the range could weaken cash flow.
Worry ifFull-year capital spending tops $60 million, or the company raises its target to more than $60 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year capital spending lands between $50 million and $60 million, as guided.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $566 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,000 loss on $10,000 · 40.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA rose 43.2% to $28.8 million, but the full-year goal still needs to be met.
Watch forQ3 results keep the company on pace for $140 million or more in 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, with guidance intact.
Also watch forThe company cuts its Adjusted EBITDA outlook below $140 million. Or results show it cannot reach the goal.