Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$139.48-2.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DORM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DORM — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off Balan…
Dated 2026-06-17
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth in
Why it matters: Q3 sales grew 3.3%, but Dorman cut its full-year sales growth guide to 2% to 3%. A stronger Q4 would show new products and business wins are helping sales.
Supportive ifQ4 net sales growth is above 3% year over year, and Dorman reports full-year growth above 3%.
Worry ifQ4 sales growth is below 2% year over year, or full-year growth falls below the 2% to 3% guide.
Why it matters: Dorman repurchased $112 million of shares through Q3, a company record. The next report will show whether it continues this capital return.
Supportive ifDorman reports it bought back more than $112 million in shares for the full year.
Worry ifDorman reports full-year share repurchases of $112 million or less.
Why it matters: Dorman kept its adjusted EPS guide near its prior range, even as it cut its sales outlook. The Q4 result tests whether earnings can meet that guide.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EPS is below $8.50, the low end of Dorman's 2026 guide.
Less concerning ifFull-year adjusted EPS is at least $8.50 and within or above the $8.50 to $8.70 guide.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin fell to 39.4% from 44.4% a year ago. Dorman says more pricing actions are planned for Q4.
Supportive ifQ4 gross margin is above 39.4% and adjusted EPS is at least $2.08.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin stays at or below 39.4%, or adjusted EPS is below $2.08.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $291 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,724 loss on $10,000 · 27.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.