Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$131.30+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DORM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
DORM — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off Balan…
Dated 2026-06-17
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth in
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs can greatly affect costs. They also impact pricing strategies.
Watch forManagement shares good news about tariff effects for Q3.
Also watch forManagement says tariff effects are getting worse for Q3.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings. This is important despite recent declines.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full-year diluted EPS guidance. It is between $7.57 and $7.97.
Worry ifManagement revises EPS guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weakening demand for Dorman's products.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ1 revenue growth stays above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show that management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifDorman announces a new share repurchase program or increases the current one.
Worry ifIf share repurchases go down or stop, it shows management lacks confidence.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in revenue growth, raising concerns about demand.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth reported above 3%.
Why it matters: Dorman expects 7% to 9% revenue growth for 2026. Meeting this guidance is key to investor confidence.
Supportive if2026 net sales reported above $2.28 billion.
Worry if2026 net sales reported below $2.24 billion.
Why it matters: Tariff changes can greatly affect costs and pricing plans.
Watch forAnnouncement of tariff changes that reduce costs for Dorman.
Also watch forThey announced new tariffs or raised existing ones.
Why it matters: Tariffs may hurt Dorman's profits and sales growth.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show a big rise in costs due to tariffs.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings show costs related to tariffs are stable or decreasing.
Why it matters: Finishing this would help with cash flow. It would also help with investments.
Supportive ifThey said the $450 million senior notes offering is done.
Worry ifThey announced delays or problems with the senior notes offering.
Why it matters: Tariffs may hurt profit margins. This could change how investors feel about the company.
Watch forQ2 2026 gross margin remains above 36% despite tariff impacts.
Also watch forQ2 2026 gross margin falls below 36% due to tariff costs.
Why it matters: Higher tariff costs have affected earnings. Monitoring EPS will show how well Dorman manages these costs.
Worry ifDiluted EPS for Q2 2026 remains within the guided range of $7.57 to $7.97.
Less concerning ifDiluted EPS for Q2 2026 is below $7.57. This shows tariffs hurt earnings.
Why it matters: CPI data can affect consumer spending patterns, impacting Dorman's sales. This is critical as the sector faces headwinds.
Watch forCPI data shows inflation is down. This means consumers are spending more.
Also watch forCPI data shows inflation is up. This means consumers are spending less.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance will show how management views market conditions. It can impact investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement raises revenue guidance. They expect over 5% growth for 2026.
Less concerning ifRevenue guidance is lowered again below 3% growth for 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating EPS targets shows strong earnings. This can make investors feel good.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS reported at or above $2.93.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS reported below $2.93.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This can help stock price.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks. They will exceed $47 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in the Producer Price Index can affect input costs and margins for Dorman.
Watch forPPI shows a decrease, indicating lower input costs.
Also watch forPPI shows an increase, indicating higher input costs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $318 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,958 loss on $10,000 · 39.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.