Douglas Elliman, Inc. (DOUG)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.81-0.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DOUG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DOUG — director transition
Dated 2026-09-04
Director — Richard J. Lampen: The filing discloses the routine retirement of a Class I director, which is a standard board composition change rather than the departure of a senior executive officer.
Why it matters: New market entries could enhance revenue and brand presence in luxury real estate.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new market entries in Q3.
Worry ifNo new market entries announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means better financial health. It also shows better efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is now positive. This means better performance in operations.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative. This highlights ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue mark would show recovery from the recent drop. It would also show growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $250 million. This shows a good trend in revenue growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $250 million. This confirms ongoing revenue problems.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could affect management and the company's image.
Worry ifUpdates show a resolution or settlement that is good for the company.
Less concerning ifNew developments could make things worse or lead to financial penalties.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $509 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,984 loss on $10,000 · 49.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may help Douglas Elliman's weak position in the market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth increases back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New market entries could boost growth. They could also strengthen Douglas Elliman's luxury brand.
Supportive ifNew luxury market entries were announced. This expands the company's reach.
Worry ifNo new market entries were announced. This suggests slow growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and performance. A miss could mean deeper issues.
Watch forEarnings results show a profit or meet what analysts expect.
Also watch forEarnings results miss expectations or show a big loss.
Why it matters: New market entries can drive revenue growth and enhance brand presence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of entry into at least one new luxury market by Q3.
Worry ifNo new market entries announced by Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on AI projects could save money. It may also improve operations.
Watch forManagement says they will show progress in AI changes by Q3.
Also watch forNo news or problems reported on AI projects by Q3.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means better financial health. It also shows more efficient operations.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth shows strong demand and good strategy execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 8.6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 4.5% year over year.
Why it matters: A smaller loss shows better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating loss for Q3 is less than $3 million.
Worry ifOperating loss for Q3 exceeds $5 million.