Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
DERMATA THERAPEUTICS INC (DRMA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.76-10.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DRMA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful advancement of DMT310 clinical trials and regulatory milestones | Dermata is advancing its lead acne drug DMT310 through clinical trials. | Intact | Failure to meet key clinical or regulatory milestones by FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, centered on a shift from development toward commercial revenue after the August 2026 launch of Tome Foundational Treatment. The thesis remains on watch: execution of the launch is on track, but recent results are weak, management is rated volatile, and the evidence snapshot has low confidence.
The snapshot provides no valuation measures or evidence about what investors already expect, so whether DRMA is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The expectations gap is also unclear; the latest earnings miss is a negative signal, but the available evidence does not show how much of it is already reflected in expectations.
Near term, the business faces a meaningful risk of another earnings miss, while a launch on management’s stated timeline creates a path toward commercial revenue. Cash fell from $7.5 million at 2025-Q4 to $4.4 million at 2026-Q2, and operating losses widened from $1.9 million to $3.0 million between 2026-Q1 and Q2. The second skincare product has no reported launch milestone, and the recent litigation filing adds uncertainty.
The multi-year view hinges on whether the new treatment launch can develop into commercial revenue while cash burn is managed. A guidance cut or further weakening in employment could add pressure; continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop. Evidence for the second product’s progress remains thin.
Over the next one to three years, DRMA’s thesis depends on converting its launch into durable commercial progress without worsening cash pressure. The evidence remains mixed and low confidence, with elevated execution and near-term earnings risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in DERMATA THERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves from -2.21 in FY26 to better than -1.52 in FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS worsens or remains below -2.21 in FY26 or below -1.52 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.74 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS improves from -2.21 in FY26 to better than -1.52 in FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 11, 2026-0.74 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase in annual revenue | A primary condition in DERMATA THERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue grows to at least $100 million in FY26 and $750 million in FY27. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $100 million in FY26 or $750 million in FY27 | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue grows to at least $100 million in FY26 and $750 million in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.52 → $-1.43 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.52 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.43 | $750,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.