Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. (DRVN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.56-0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DRVN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DRVN — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-06-05
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. As previously disclosed in a Form 12b-25 Notification of Late Filing (the “Form 12b-25”) filed by the Company on May 8, 2026, the Company is delayed in filing its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 28, 2026 (the “1Q2026 10-Q”) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). On June 1, 2026, the Company received a notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock…
Why it matters: This number shows progress toward the $125-$145 million goal for 2026.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $70 million for Q2.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $70 million for Q2.
Why it matters: A delay may show ongoing financial issues. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 2026 10-Q filed on time.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 10-Q filing delayed beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows progress toward the $1.95-$2.05 billion revenue goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $500 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $500 million.
Why it matters: Take 5's growth is key to Driven Brands' overall performance. A drop below 3.5% could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifTake 5 reports same store sales growth of 3.5% or higher in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifTake 5 same store sales growth falls below 3.5%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$212 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $352 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,556 loss on $10,000 · 45.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Filing the 10-K is crucial for compliance and restoring investor confidence. Delays could signal ongoing issues.
Supportive ifThe 2025 Form 10-K is filed with the SEC.
Worry ifFurther delays in filing the 2025 Form 10-K.
Why it matters: An improvement means better financial health. It also lowers the risk of debt.
Supportive ifNet leverage ratio reported at 3.0x or lower.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio is above 3.0x.
Why it matters: Following Nasdaq rules is important to keep the listing. A bad update can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifThey announced they are back in line with Nasdaq listing rules.
Less concerning ifThey announced they are still not in line with Nasdaq listing rules.
Why it matters: Fixing this problem is important for keeping investor trust and market access.
Worry ifA press release confirmed that the delisting notice was resolved.
Less concerning ifMore notices or delays about the delisting from Nasdaq.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for debt reduction and growth. A drop below $125 million raises concerns.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow reported below $125 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 free cash flow reported above $125 million.
Why it matters: Revenue is key for growth. If it drops below $475 million, sales may be slowing.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $475 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $475 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a sign of business health. Growth below 6% could indicate slowing demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported at 6% or higher.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 6%.
Why it matters: A lower EBITDA shows it is hard to keep making money. This is due to restatement costs.
Worry ifIn Q1 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was less than $100 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q1 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was $100 million or more.
Why it matters: Same store sales growth is key for Driven Brands' revenue outlook. A drop below 2% could signal weakness.
Worry ifSame store sales growth in Q3 reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifSame store sales growth in Q3 reported above 2%.
Why it matters: Lowering revenue guidance may show trouble in reaching growth goals. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 revenue guidance to less than $507 million.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises Q3 revenue guidance to $507 million or more.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for debt reduction and growth. Falling below $125 million may raise concerns.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $125 million for fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $125 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted diluted EPS is a key measure of profitability. A drop below $1.15 could signal financial strain.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS is below $1.15 for the fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS reported at or above $1.15 for fiscal year 2026.