Dynatrace (DT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.90-1.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer (CFO) — James Benson: Mr. Benson is retiring and the company has initiated a search for a new CFO.
Why it matters: Investor Day will share Dynatrace's growth plans. It will also show how the company returns capital.
Supportive ifInvestor Day is held and outlines the path to the 'Rule of 50'.
Worry ifInvestor Day is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 15% would signal a slowdown in the company's expansion efforts.
Worry ifQ2 fiscal 2027 total revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show management's confidence. They can also help the stock price.
Supportive ifThere may be more share buybacks using money from the notes offering.
Worry ifNo announcement of share repurchases or a halt in the repurchase program.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well Dynatrace is expanding its recurring revenue. Strong growth signals ongoing demand for its services.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 ARR growth of 16% or better, confirming strong market demand.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 ARR growth falls below 15%, indicating weaker demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,649 loss on $10,000 · 36.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for Dynatrace to make more money. Weak results can worry investors.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than in past quarters.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same compared to past quarters.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact Dynatrace's performance. It may indicate broader market challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: A smooth change to a new CFO is key. It helps keep financial stability and trust.
Watch forA new CFO is appointed and announced by the end of Q2 fiscal 2027.
Also watch forNo new CFO is appointed by the end of Q2 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows Dynatrace can control costs while increasing revenue. A drop may mean problems.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating margin is over 27.5%. This shows good cost management.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating margin falls below 27%. This means costs are rising.
Why it matters: Log management is a key growth area for Dynatrace. Sustained high growth indicates strong product demand.
Supportive ifLog management revenue grows over 100% year over year. This confirms strong market interest.
Worry ifLog management revenue growth drops below 80% year over year. This may show market saturation.
Why it matters: Reaching $250M in cash from operations would indicate strong cash management and support growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported at or above $250M.
Worry ifCash from operations is less than $250M.
Why it matters: Exceeding this threshold shows strong demand. It also shows good market positioning.
Supportive ifARR growth is over 20% compared to last year.
Worry ifARR growth is below 17% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks would signal management's confidence in the company's value and future cash flow. This can boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifDynatrace says share buybacks will go over $300 million in FY27.
Worry ifShare repurchases remain below $300 million in FY27.
Why it matters: A new CFO could change financial strategy and impact investor confidence. It’s crucial for maintaining growth momentum.
Watch forA strong candidate is appointed, with a proven track record in tech finance.
Also watch forThe search for a new CFO is taking longer than expected. This raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Investor Day will show Dynatrace's plans and goals. This will affect how investors feel.
Watch forInvestors liked the growth plans and strategy that were shared.
Also watch forNegative feedback or lack of clarity on future growth plans from investors.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong market demand and good sales strategies.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth of 15% or more year over year.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth drops below 14% year over year.
Why it matters: If operating income grows more than 50%, it shows good efficiency and cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 50% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is under 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A downward change may show weak demand or competition. This could affect growth.
Worry ifARR growth guidance for Q2 is revised down to below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifARR growth guidance for Q2 remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may show strong cash flow. It also shows management's faith in the stock.
Supportive ifShare buybacks planned exceed $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks are below $200 million. This shows worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: More cash from operations is key for Dynatrace's finances. Less cash can mean problems.
Supportive ifCash from operations is up compared to the last quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations is down compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance show how much management believes in revenue growth.
Supportive ifGuidance for Q2 revenue is over $570 million. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifGuidance for Q2 revenue is below $565 million. This suggests demand is weak.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs. This leads to more efficient operations.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin is now 14% or higher.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin stays below 12%.
Why it matters: The pricing shows how the market sees Dynatrace's financing plan. It may affect stock dilution and capital plans.
Watch forThe notes are priced with an exchange rate that reflects strong demand, showing investor confidence.
Also watch forThe notes are priced low. This shows weak demand and worries about dilution.
Why it matters: New board members may change Dynatrace's plans, especially in AI and tech.
Watch forLook for positive news or changes after new directors are appointed.
Also watch forNo clear changes in plans or results after the new appointments.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show how much management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks in the new $1 billion program.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase pace.