Dynatrace (DT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.70-6.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-25
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 24, 2026, Dynatrace LLC (the “Borrower”) and Dynatrace Intermediate LLC (“Holdings”), each a Delaware limited liability company and wholly-owned subsidiary of Dynatrace, Inc. (the “Company”), and certain of their respective U.S. subsidiaries, as guarantors, entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and certain lenders from time to time party thereto, for a senior secure…
Why it matters: ARR growth has sped up for four straight quarters. Another strong result would support the growth plan.
Supportive ifQ2 ARR growth in constant currency is above 16.5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 ARR growth in constant currency is below 15.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Dynatrace beat its last outlook and aims to speed up ARR growth. Revenue above the Q2 range would back that plan.
Supportive ifOn November 3, Q2 revenue is above $570 million, the top of the stated range.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $565 million, the bottom of the stated range.
Why it matters: The company has kept its margin near 29%. A drop below the Q2 range would weaken the profit trend.
Worry ifQ2 non-GAAP operating margin is below 29.5%, the low end of the stated range.
Less concerning ifQ2 non-GAAP operating margin is at or above 30%, the high end of the range.
Why it matters: The notes may be exchanged for cash, shares, or both. The hedge may limit dilution, while the warrants may add shares.
Worry ifDynatrace reports that note exchanges or warrant exercise add shares. The share count rises from the Q1 diluted count of 293.7 million.
Less concerning ifDynatrace reports no net share increase from note exchanges or warrant exercise. The diluted share count is 293.7 million or lower.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,480 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The current CFO plans to retire by fiscal year-end. A timely appointment would help keep the handoff on track.
Supportive ifDynatrace names a new CFO by March 31, 2027, and confirms the handoff plan.
Worry ifDynatrace has not named a new CFO by March 31, 2027, or reports a delay in the handoff.