Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Duolingo (DUOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$157.02-2.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.36 → 3.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DUOL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest in AI tools to enhance user engagement and content creation | A supporting condition in Duolingo's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain AI-driven engagement improvements. | Improving | AI investments fail to improve or maintain user engagement | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business thesis, supported by robust earnings quality and stable management. The multi-year view is intact: user growth is on track, but recent financial performance is neutral and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation signal is neutral, and DUOL carries a 2.76 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is modestly negative, which suggests expectations are not clearly conservative; confidence in this reading is low, and the recent valuation measure has fallen from 28.7 to 18.3.
Near term, revenue rose from $252.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $298.5 million in 2026-Q2, while daily active user growth accelerated to 23% year over year. Management is delivering on user growth and engagement, but the financial impact of AI and speaking features is not yet quantified, and share repurchase activity is still pending. The estimated near-term miss risk is low, though past misses and recent peer misses remain risks.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would weaken the near-term case, while continued execution would support the current thesis. Over the multi-year view, the case also depends on whether AI and speaking features improve engagement in ways that show up in financial results. Sector signals matter too: continued strength or weakness from bellwethers AUR and UPBD could affect the broader Consumer Discretionary backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued user growth and engagement, with valuation expectations and elevated risk limiting confidence. The evidence keeps the long-term thesis intact, but execution and guidance remain important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Share buybacks show strong capital allocation. |
| Intact |
| Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $1.205 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Duolingo's published investment case. The stated target is $1.205 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $309.007M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.205 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026309,007,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow daily active users to 100 million by 2028 | Duolingo grows daily active users 21% yearly to 56.5 million. | Improving | DAU growth stalls and fails to progress towards 100 million by 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.47 → $3.36 · observed estimates
$1.38B → $1.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.47 | $1,375,389,602 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.85 | $1,376,363,550 | 6 / 22 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.85 | $1,376,363,550 | 6 / 22 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.85 | $1,376,363,550 | 6 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.47 | $1,375,389,602 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.85 | $1,376,363,550 | 6 / 22 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.47 | $1,375,389,602 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.49 | $1,376,256,269 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.49 | $1,376,256,269 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.85 | $1,376,723,720 | 6 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.85 | $1,376,723,720 | 6 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.85 | $1,376,723,720 | 6 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.85 | $1,376,721,580 | 6 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.49 | $1,376,256,269 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.68 | $1,363,982,340 | 7 / 22 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.68 | $1,363,982,340 | 7 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.68 | $1,363,982,340 | 7 / 22 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.68 | $1,361,646,120 | 7 / 22 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.68 | $1,361,646,120 | 7 / 22 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.38 | $1,365,370,268 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.34 | $1,365,068,243 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.34 | $1,365,068,243 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.34 | $1,365,048,593 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.34 | $1,365,048,593 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.34 | $1,365,048,593 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.34 | $1,365,048,593 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.34 | $1,365,051,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.34 | $1,365,051,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.34 | $1,365,051,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.34 | $1,365,188,152 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.34 | $1,365,188,152 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.34 | $1,365,188,152 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.34 | $1,365,188,152 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.36 | $1,367,551,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,802 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.36 | $1,367,689,788 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.36 | $1,367,690,337 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.36 | $1,367,690,337 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.36 | $1,367,690,337 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.36 | $1,367,690,337 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.37 | $1,367,885,792 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.37 | $1,367,885,792 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.37 | $1,367,885,792 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.37 | $1,367,885,792 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.36 | $1,368,291,310 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.36 | $1,368,291,310 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.37 | $1,367,882,219 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.37 | $1,367,798,853 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.37 | $1,367,798,853 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.37 | $1,370,204,749 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.37 | $1,370,204,749 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.37 | $1,370,204,749 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.37 | $1,370,204,749 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.37 | $1,370,204,749 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.37 | $1,370,466,249 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.37 | $1,370,466,249 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.37 | $1,370,466,249 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.37 | $1,370,466,249 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.37 | $1,370,466,249 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.37 | $1,370,466,249 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.37 | $1,370,466,249 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.38 | $1,370,968,621 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.38 | $1,370,967,385 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.38 | $1,370,967,385 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.38 | $1,370,967,385 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.38 | $1,370,967,385 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.38 | $1,370,967,385 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.38 | $1,370,976,358 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.36 | $1,372,683,403 | 10 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
4 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.