Duolingo (DUOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$157.02-2.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DUOL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DUOL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: The plan was set up to help manage dilution, but no repurchases were reported yet. A disclosed purchase would show the plan is underway.
Supportive ifA company filing or earnings report says Duolingo bought back shares under the $400 million plan.
Worry ifThe next two earnings reports show no share repurchases under the plan.
Why it matters: DAU growth reached 23% in Q2 and sped up from Q1. A rate above 20% would show that user growth remains strong.
Supportive ifIn the Q3 results, DAU growth is above 20% year over year.
Worry ifIn the Q3 results, DAU growth is below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue rose from $252.3 million to $298.5 million year over year. Another rise above 15% would show that growth continues.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows more than 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue grows less than 10% year over year or falls from a year earlier.
Why it matters: Duolingo made speaking a core part of learning and is adding features and content. Higher user activity would show these changes are helping.
Supportive ifQ3 DAU growth stays at or above 23% year over year after the new speaking features.
Worry ifQ3 DAU growth falls below 15% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$276 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $607 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,564 loss on $10,000 · 65.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.