Duolingo (DUOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$154.46-2.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DUOL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DUOL — director transition
Dated 2026-08-10
Director — Sallie Krawcheck: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a governance matter rather than a senior executive management change.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show a promise to cut dilution and reward shareholders.
Supportive ifIn Q2, they announced share buybacks over $50 million.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or a big drop in buyback activity in Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue is key for Duolingo's long-term plans and market strength.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth turns positive year over year.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Investing in AI tools can enhance Duolingo's learning experience and attract more users. This is part of their long-term strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new AI tools or features launched in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo progress or announcements on AI tools in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: These new features would show that Duolingo cares about better learning.
Supportive ifNew speaking practice features were announced. This will help engage users more.
Worry ifNo new speaking practice features were announced. This shows a slowdown in product development.
Why it matters: Progress in AI tools can enhance user experience and support long-term growth.
Supportive ifDuolingo publishes more than 20,500 course units in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCourse units published in Q2 2026 are fewer than 20,500.
Why it matters: Share repurchases can signal confidence in the business. It also helps manage dilution.
Supportive ifDuolingo starts a share buyback program worth $400 million.
Worry ifNo share buyback activity is planned for the next quarter.
Why it matters: More course units show Duolingo's focus on using AI for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 course units published exceed 25,000.
Worry ifQ2 course units published fall below 20,000.
Why it matters: User growth numbers will indicate how well Duolingo's marketing strategies are working. This is key for future revenue growth.
Watch forUser base growth reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Also watch forUser base growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: New features can help users engage more. They also support the growth plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new speaking practice features being launched in Q2.
Worry ifNo new speaking practice features are announced in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows good execution of growth plans. It also shows user engagement.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Investments in AI tools could enhance learning experiences and attract more users.
Supportive ifNew AI features or tools are announced. They help keep users engaged.
Worry ifNo new AI features are announced. This suggests delays in improving products.
Why it matters: A slowdown in user growth may show problems with product use and market competition.
Worry ifQ3 daily active user growth below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifDaily active user growth remains at or above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Starting a share buyback program may show trust in the company's finances.
Supportive ifThere is news about share buyback plans from the $400 million program.
Worry ifNo news on share buybacks by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Negative revenue growth may show bigger problems with gaining or keeping users.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains positive year over year.
Why it matters: Improving AI features could help keep users and boost engagement, which is key for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says more people are using the service because of new AI features.
Worry ifUser engagement numbers show no change or drop even with AI feature updates.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $640 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,407 loss on $10,000 · 74.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.