Duolingo (DUOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$161.27+25.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put DUOL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 23% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 66% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskDuolingo's user growth engine has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue growth is accelerating as the company guides for 13% bookings growth. The stock trades at 53 times earnings versus a 16 times peer median. This premium reflects modest expectations relative to our internal forecast. The market cycle is in a mania phase, which adds fragility to the setup. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades. Our read remains intact, but this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. DUOL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering DUOL (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for DUOL in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare DUOL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUOL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Education Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put DUOL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Prioritize user growth and improve product engagement
Strong user growth and monetization directly validate core thesis.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $161.27
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $161.27.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Q3 sales beat confirms revenue growth objective.
Advances: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Official guidance confirms revenue growth and product rollout.
Advances: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Revenue beat supports growth objective despite minor EPS miss.
CEO stock sale raises concerns about management's commitment.
CEO stock sale raises concerns about management's commitment.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
Analyst optimism supports AI enhancement objectives.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
AI upgrade aligns with product enhancement objectives.
