Duolingo (DUOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$154.46-2.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put DUOL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 29% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 74% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskDuolingo's growth trajectory relies on expanding its user base to 100 million daily active users by 2028. Revenue growth of about 16% aligns with this goal, supported by strong user engagement and product enhancements. The stock trades at 45× P/E versus a peer median of 15×, indicating it looks expensive on this basis. Recent financial performance has slipped notably, raising concerns about sustaining growth. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 19%. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. DUOL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 25 analysts currently covering DUOL (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for DUOL in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare DUOL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUOL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Education Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put DUOL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
Analyst optimism supports AI enhancement objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $154.46
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $154.46.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
AI upgrade aligns with product enhancement objectives.
Advances: Enhance product with AI and speaking practice features
User feedback supports AI enhancements, aligning with product objectives.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Earnings report raises concerns about revenue growth.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Earnings report raises concerns about revenue growth.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Slower revenue outlook poses a challenge to growth objectives.
Advances: Expand user base to 100 million DAUs by 2028
Revenue growth aligns with user base expansion goal.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth and bookings
Weak revenue guidance raises concerns about growth.
