Dexcom (DXCM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$73.57+1.64%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.57. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 DXCM trades at 32× p/e, below its 37× p/e peer median. Our $87 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $64–$100. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $83.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $160.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $166.01 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $19.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$64.00 – $100.00 (median $83.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-23
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 156% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 11.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.57/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $13.49 |
| 6.2 |
| 2.25 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $87.01 | 24.0 | 3.63 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $85.09 | 36.5 | 2.33 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $34.00 | 2.8 | 12.24 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $79.60 | 34.2 | 2.33 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $91.86 | 39.4 | 2.33 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $87.98 | 36.5 | 2.41 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $132.33 | 24.0 | 5.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $127.23 | 36.5 | 3.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $46.49 | 2.8 | 16.74 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $119.02 | 34.2 | 3.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $137.35 | 39.4 | 3.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $175.00 | 24.0 | 7.30 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $148.49 | 36.5 | 4.07 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $54.26 | 2.8 | 19.54 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $138.91 | 34.2 | 4.07 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $160.31 | 39.4 | 4.07 | Analyst | high |