Dexcom (DXCM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$87.90-2.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DXCM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers
DXCM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-03-02
Chief Executive Officer — Kevin R. Sayer: Kevin R. Sayer is retiring as CEO and transitioning to Executive Chairman.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how the company is doing. This can affect market feelings.
Watch forQ2 earnings beat consensus estimates by more than 10%.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Rick Osterloh's skills could help Dexcom create better products.
Supportive ifNew products or innovations match Osterloh's skills.
Worry ifNo new products or delays in product launches.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows if the company controls costs well.
Watch forQ2 non-GAAP operating margin is more than 23.5%.
Also watch forQ2 non-GAAP operating margin is less than 23%.
Why it matters: Updates may show management's trust in cash flow and future growth.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the $1 billion program.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Lower growth could signal a slowdown in demand for Dexcom's products.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 11% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 11% year over year.
Why it matters: Good results may boost product trust and increase sales.
Supportive ifThey announced good results from the CONNECT trial for type 2 diabetes.
Worry ifThey announced unclear or bad results from the CONNECT trial.
Why it matters: Progress in the share repurchase program could boost shareholder value and confidence.
Supportive ifDexcom announces completion of at least $500 million in share repurchases by Q3.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks reported by Q3.
Why it matters: Falling margins may show higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifThe operating margin is below 23.5%.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating margin is at or above 23.5%.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better efficiency and more profit. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating margin exceeds 24% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 23.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: New board members can bring new ideas and skills. This can change the company's direction.
Watch forA new board member has been announced. This person has important industry experience.
Also watch forNo new board appointments in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A further increase in revenue guidance would show strong demand and confidence in growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance. It is now above $5.18-$5.25 billion.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers Q3 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: Good user feedback on the Stelo app can boost customer engagement and sales.
Supportive ifUser reviews and engagement for the Stelo app are much better now.
Worry ifNegative feedback or low engagement metrics for the Stelo app.
Why it matters: Good results would support Dexcom's CGM technology for type 2 diabetes. This could grow the market.
Supportive ifA press release confirms that the CONNECT trial met its primary endpoint.
Worry ifThe CONNECT trial fails to meet its primary endpoint.
Why it matters: Changes in gross profit margin guidance may show shifts in cost management or pricing.
Watch forManagement raises the gross profit margin guidance. It is now above 64%.
Also watch forManagement lowers the gross profit margin guidance. It is now below 64%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,188 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.