Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$230.22+0.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EAT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $230 EAT trades at 21× p/e — 1.3× the 17× p/e peer median, and above its own 17× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $183 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts target $200–$325. Note: our $183 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($200–$325). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $260.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $554.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $650.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $29.94 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$200.00 – $325.00 (median $260.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-08-24
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 83% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 28.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.20/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $49.15 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $74.56 | 11.1 | 7.36 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $287.08 | 22.9 | 12.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $289.14 | 21.5 | 13.48 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $119.98 | 0.9 | 130.50 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $565.20 | 52.5 | 10.77 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $49.90 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $183.88 | 17.1 | 10.77 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $185.39 | 16.9 | 11.00 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $436.61 | 22.9 | 19.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $338.75 | 21.5 | 15.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $145.31 | 0.9 | 158.06 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $828.59 | 52.5 | 15.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $269.58 | 17.1 | 15.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $577.42 | 22.9 | 25.20 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $387.35 | 21.5 | 18.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $166.16 | 0.9 | 180.73 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $947.46 | 52.5 | 18.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $308.25 | 17.1 | 18.05 | Analyst | medium |