Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$230.22+0.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EAT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-12
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Furthermore, the information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as…
Why it matters: Brinker's revenue guidance is crucial for assessing growth. Changes may impact investor confidence.
Watch forBrinker raises its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to over $5.80 billion.
Also watch forBrinker lowers its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to below $5.76 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a change in the growth phase of the sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the last two quarters.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the last two quarters.
Why it matters: Capex guidance affects future growth and plans. Changes show management's confidence in the business.
Watch forManagement raises capex guidance to more than $250 million.
Also watch forManagement lowers capex guidance to less than $240 million.
Why it matters: Management aims for $5.78B-$5.82B in revenue. Changes could indicate shifts in demand or operational challenges.
Watch forManagement raises revenue guidance to more than $5.82 billion.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $5.78 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$226 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,565 loss on $10,000 · 35.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Redeeming senior notes might impact cash flow and future investments.
Watch forAfter redemption, cash flow improves a lot. This allows for more spending on growth.
Also watch forAfter redemption, cash flow goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help Chili's in the market. Good integration is key for growth.
Supportive ifThe deal finishes on time. It helps Chili's operations.
Worry ifThe deal has delays or problems. This makes integration harder.
Why it matters: Maggiano's has had a tough time. Sales dropped 3.9% in fiscal 2026. A recovery shows the brand is improving.
Supportive ifMaggiano's restaurant sales rise by at least 2% in Q1 2027.
Worry ifMaggiano's restaurant sales drop again in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks can show management's trust in the company's value. It may help keep stock prices steady.
Supportive ifThe company buys back at least $200 million of shares under the $750 million plan by year-end.
Worry ifBuybacks fall below $100 million by year-end.
Why it matters: The company has $750 million for buybacks. Good execution can increase value for shareholders.
Supportive ifBrinker repurchases at least $100 million of its shares by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Chili's has shown strong sales growth. Continued growth would signal sustained demand and operational success.
Supportive ifChili's restaurant sales grew more than 4% in Q4.
Worry ifChili's restaurant sales fell below 3% in Q4.
Why it matters: Meeting the $5.78B-$5.82B revenue target is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q4 revenue guidance within the $5.78B-$5.82B range.
Worry ifGuidance falls below $5.78B, indicating weaker growth prospects.
Why it matters: Chili's sales growth matters for making money and staying strong in the market.
Supportive ifChili's same-store sales growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q3 2027.
Worry ifChili's same-store sales growth falls below 3% year over year in Q3 2027.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show if Chili's growth continues and how Maggiano's is improving.
Watch forChili's same-store sales growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q1 2027.
Also watch forChili's same-store sales growth drops below 3% year over year in Q1 2027.