Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$212.66-3.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EAT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-12
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Furthermore, the information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as…
Why it matters: Brinker raised its fiscal 2027 profit range to $13.30–$13.90 per share. A result below the low end would miss its updated range.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 profit per share, excluding special items, is below $13.30.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 profit per share, excluding special items, is at least $13.30.
Why it matters: The stated plan lists 5 to 6 new U.S. Chili's and 25 to 30 new overseas locations. Fewer openings would slow the planned growth.
Worry ifBrinker reports fewer than 5 new U.S. Chili's or fewer than 25 new overseas Chili's in fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifBrinker reports at least 5 new U.S. and 25 new overseas Chili's in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Maggiano's comparable sales fell 3.4% in Q1. A move above zero would show that sales have turned around.
Supportive ifMaggiano's sales at the same locations rise above 0% year over year in a reported quarter.
Worry ifMaggiano's sales at the same locations stay below 0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$211 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $418 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,805 loss on $10,000 · 28.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.