Reading EFOI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EFOI free→
ENERGY FOCUS INC (EFOI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$2.79-10.00%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, EFOI is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 324% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
- Market cap
- $19.74M
- Employees
- 8
- IPO date
- 2000-05-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$0.64consensus
Range $0.64 – $0.64
vs price: +336% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$0.51consensus
Range $0.51 – $0.51
vs price: +452% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $2.79, EFOI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 4× p/s (4.4× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~324% near-term growth vs our ~-6% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.64 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
3.8x
peer 0.9x · own history —
Premium
4.4x peer
Growth the price needs
324%
our forecast -6%
Our fair value
$0.64
range $0.64 – $0.64
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 324% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
15th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
46th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme value-trade-down.headwind-5.5%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$262.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$768.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,701.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · composite_insight_scoresmall change
Composite insight rose by 12.8 points (from -27.4 to -14.6).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EFOI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SN, SGI, and MHK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting EFOI and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for EFOI and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SN, SGI, and MHK start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping EFOI and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits EFOI and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If EFOI misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -40% on the 2025-06-30 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0314d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . On May 29, 2026 , Energy Focus, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Euka Power Japan Co., Ltd. (the “Purchaser”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell in a private placement (the “Private Placement”) an aggregate of 65,789 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), for a purchase price p…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.