Eagle Bancorp Inc (EGBN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.18+1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EGBN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -38.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
EGBN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 22, 2026, Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Managing expenses is a priority. High growth in expenses could hurt profits.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses grow less than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expenses grow more than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Net interest income is important for banks to make money. A rise would show good management of rates and loans.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net interest income shows no decline from Q1 2026's $63.7 million.
Worry ifNet interest income declines further from Q1 2026's $63.7 million.
Why it matters: Controlling noninterest expenses is key for making money. Rising costs can hurt earnings.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses stay the same or drop in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expenses increase by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows a return to making money. This is a key goal for management.
Supportive ifQ3 net income is over $6.9 million. This shows ongoing profitability.
Worry ifQ3 net income is less than $6.9 million. This shows ongoing money problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $296 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,657 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector is slowing down. If Eagle Bancorp's revenue growth drops, it could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifEagle Bancorp reports revenue growth below the sector median of 12%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is above the median. This shows stability.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for the sector. A drop could signal trouble ahead.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in net interest margin means a better funding mix and more profit.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported above 2.55% for Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 2.50%.
Why it matters: The new CEO's leadership style could change company direction and impact performance. Investors will want to see how this affects strategy.
Watch forThe new CEO makes positive comments or takes actions that help shareholders.
Also watch forNegative feedback from stakeholders or a lack of clear strategy from the new CEO.
Why it matters: Curley's leadership will shape Eagle Bancorp's strategy and growth. His success is key for shareholders.
Supportive ifCurley announces good financial results or plans in the first six months.
Worry ifCurley reports losses or bad changes during his first time in charge.
Why it matters: Curley’s new strategies could change growth and profit for Eagle Bancorp.
Watch forNew strategies have been announced. They aim to improve profit and asset quality.
Also watch forNo major strategies announced or delays in starting them.
Why it matters: Fewer bad assets mean better asset quality. This matters for management.
Supportive ifBad assets are under $113.1 million. This shows better asset quality.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are above $113.1 million. This suggests ongoing credit risk.
Why it matters: Lower net charge-offs show better credit quality. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifNet charge-offs are below 2.78%. This reflects better credit quality.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 2.78%. This points to possible credit problems.
Why it matters: Curley's leadership style and experience may help the bank make more money. Investors will watch to see if he can meet the bank's goals.
Supportive ifLook for positive changes in net income or asset quality in the next two quarters.
Worry ifWatch for a drop in profits or asset quality after the leadership change.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income shows ongoing money-making problems for Eagle Bancorp.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $5.5 million, which is a 20% decline from Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifNet income stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in non-performing assets may show worse asset quality and higher credit risk.
Worry ifNon-performing assets go over $130 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets drop or stay below $113 million.
Why it matters: High net charge-offs show poor credit quality and may hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 3% of total loans in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 2.78%.
Why it matters: This leadership change may affect the company's plans and how well it runs.
Watch forStephen Curley shares new plans that aim to make more money.
Also watch forCurley does not fix key issues or delays important plans.