Encompass Health (EHC)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$121.79-0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EHC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events . On August 13, 2026, Encompass Health Corporation (the “Company”) completed the issuance and sale of $100 million in aggregate principal amount of its 5.875% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Additional Notes”), along with the related guarantees of the Additional Notes by certain of the Company’s subsidiaries, in a private offering. The purchase price for the Additional Notes was 98.75% of the aggregate principal amount, resulting in net proceeds to the Company of approximately $96.9…
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows how well a company manages costs. A slowdown may mean problems.
Worry ifOperating income growth is less than 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is more than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A downward change could mean lower profit expectations. This would affect investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share guidance for 2026 is revised down from $5.89 to below $5.81.
Less concerning ifAdjusted earnings per share guidance for 2026 remains at or above $5.89.
Why it matters: New hospitals and beds are key to driving future revenue growth and capacity.
Supportive ifAt least 5 new hospitals and 100 bed additions are planned by year-end.
Worry ifFewer than 5 new hospital openings or less than 100 bed additions by year-end.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends show operational health. Strong cash flow supports growth initiatives and dividend payments.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 cash flow from operations exceeds $350 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 cash flow from operations falls below $300 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,609 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues and if guidance holds. Investors watch for performance against expectations.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, net operating revenue is over $1,600 million. This shows strong growth.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, net operating revenue is under $1,500 million. This suggests growth is slowing.
Why it matters: Slower growth in adjusted EBITDA may show trouble with costs and profits.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth prints below 9%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 9%.
Why it matters: This metric shows demand for services. Strong growth means good operations and market position.
Supportive ifSame-store discharge growth exceeds 2% in Q2 2026, showing strong patient demand.
Worry ifSame-store discharge growth is below 1% in Q2 2026. This shows weakening demand.
Why it matters: The new debt may change cash flow and financial flexibility. This could affect operations.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops a lot after taking on new debt.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations stays steady or goes up after taking on new debt.
Why it matters: More buybacks could show management's trust in the company's worth.
Supportive ifThere will be news of more share buybacks beyond the $1 billion limit.
Worry ifNo new share buyback news is expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Free cash flow trends will indicate how well the company manages its cash.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow stays under $200 million for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifAdjusted free cash flow exceeds $200 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Opening new facilities is important for more capacity and revenue. Delays may show problems.
Supportive ifThe new 49-bed hospital in Irmo, SC, opens as scheduled.
Worry ifThe Irmo, SC hospital opening is delayed more than expected.
Why it matters: New debt may affect cash flow and financial flexibility going forward.
Watch forDebt issuance leads to improved cash flow metrics in the next quarter.
Also watch forDebt issuance results in worsened cash flow metrics in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New guidance will show how management sees growth and profit trends.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q2 adjusted earnings per share to more than $1.60.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q2 adjusted earnings per share to less than $1.50.
Why it matters: Changes in EBITDA guidance show how well a company runs. This affects investor trust.
Watch forEBITDA guidance is raised to more than $1,380 million for 2026.
Also watch forEBITDA guidance is lowered to less than $1,340 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Slower dividend growth may mean less cash flow or problems with spending money. This matters to investors.
Worry ifDividend growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifDividend growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A downward change could show problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is lowered from $1,365 to $1,350 million or less.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays at or above $1,365 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining dividend growth is important for investor confidence. A cut could signal financial strain.
Worry ifAnnouncement of an increase in the dividend per share for 2026.
Less concerning ifAnnouncement of no increase or a decrease in the dividend per share for 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean trouble in keeping growth going.
Worry ifQ3 net operating revenue growth prints below 9%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net operating revenue growth exceeds 9%.
Why it matters: Opening new hospitals helps growth. It also adds more capacity.
Supportive ifFive new hospitals are opened by year-end as planned.
Worry ifFewer than five new hospitals are opened by year-end.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may show problems or higher costs.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $250 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $250 million.