Elevance Health (ELV)
NYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-07-07
$418.86+2.62%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $418.86. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $419 ELV trades at 14× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $459 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $331–$498. Not investment advice.
$331.00 – $498.00 (median $435.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $34.16/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $435.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $192.52 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $127.07 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $372.01 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $711.54 | 26.6 | 26.75 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $625.66 | 15.3 | 47.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $583.10 | 19.9 | 29.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $818.73 | 26.6 | 30.78 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $3000.14 | 3.3 | 909.32 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $249.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $415.89 | 13.5 | 30.78 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $847.31 | 26.6 | 31.85 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $644.98 | 26.6 | 24.25 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $337.97 | 19.9 | 16.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $893.45 | 26.6 | 33.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $2948.85 | 3.3 | 893.78 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $453.84 | 13.5 | 33.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $604.10 | 26.6 | 22.71 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $234.95 | 19.9 | 11.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $883.24 | 26.6 | 33.20 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $2915.15 | 3.3 | 883.56 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $448.65 | 13.5 | 33.20 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.