Elevance Health (ELV)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$432.00-0.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ELV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ELV — President transition
Dated 2026-02-26
Executive Vice President and President of Carelon — Peter D. Haytaian: Mr. Haytaian is transitioning from his role to devote more time to family commitments.
Why it matters: Management tied its 2027 growth goal to a 2026 earnings base of at least $26.75. A lower goal or base would weaken that plan.
Watch forManagement keeps its goal of at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 from a base of at least $26.75.
Also watch forManagement cuts the 2027 adjusted EPS growth goal below 12% or lowers its $26.75 base.
Why it matters: The ratio fell to 90.6% in Q3 from 89.7% in Q2. A lower ratio helps show that medical cost control is holding.
Watch forThe next reported benefit expense ratio is below 90.0%.
Also watch forThe next reported benefit expense ratio is 90.0% or higher.
Why it matters: Carelon revenue grew 5% in Q3, while operating gain was $0.9 billion. Higher gain would show that growth is adding to earnings.
Supportive ifCarelon reports a quarterly operating gain above $0.9 billion. It also grows year over year.
Worry ifCarelon operating gain is $0.9 billion or less, or falls year over year.
Why it matters: Total medical membership fell 1.1% year over year in Q3. A larger drop could weigh on plan revenue and operating gain.
Worry ifTotal medical membership falls more than 1.1% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal medical membership decline narrows to 1.1% or less year over year, or turns to growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $260 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,649 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.