Elevance Health (ELV)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$407.50-1.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ELV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
ELV — President transition
Dated 2026-02-26
Executive Vice President and President of Carelon — Peter D. Haytaian: Mr. Haytaian is transitioning from his role to devote more time to family commitments.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance shows management's confidence in business growth. This can boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement raises the FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. It is now over $26.75.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. It is now below $26.75.
Why it matters: Larger losses in Medicaid membership could signal deeper issues in the business. It may affect overall growth.
Worry ifMedicaid membership losses are over 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifMedicaid membership losses stay under 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A strong earnings beat shows good management and strong operations. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings exceed consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings fall short of consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks signal management's commitment to returning value to shareholders. It can support stock price.
Supportive ifElevance Health announces share repurchases of at least $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks are announced in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,649 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for funding growth and returning capital to shareholders. It reflects operational health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $5.5 billion.
Worry ifOperating cash flow for Q2 2026 falls below $5.5 billion.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow is key for funding operations and growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifManagement confirms FY 2026 cash flow guidance of at least $5.5 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers FY 2026 cash flow guidance to below $5 billion.
Why it matters: Operating revenue growth shows the company can grow despite challenges. This growth helps investors feel good.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 operating revenue grows year over year by more than 1.5%.
Worry ifQ3 2026 operating revenue growth is less than 1.5% or declines.
Why it matters: Membership changes impact revenue and growth. A decline may signal deeper issues in the business.
Worry ifMedical membership drops by over 500,000 members from the last quarter.
Less concerning ifMedical membership increases or stays the same from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can signal management's confidence in the company's future. Changes can affect stock value.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new share repurchase program or boosts the current one.
Worry ifManagement suspends or cuts back the current share repurchase program.