Elevance Health (ELV)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$407.50-1.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Elevance Health grows earnings steadily with EPS guidance raised to $26.75 for 2026. The company generates strong cash flow, targeting at least $5.5 billion in operating cash flow. It returns capital consistently, repurchasing $1.1 billion in shares in Q1 2026. Valuation is cheap versus peers, trading at a PE of 13.6 versus 26.6 median.
Revenue growth is weak, with consensus expecting a slight decline of -0.6%. Management guidance is soft, and operating risks like regulatory sanctions could hurt results. Share buybacks may slow if cash flow weakens.
The market prices the stock about 9% below our fair value near $453, reflecting modest revenue decline expectations. Our fair value is 7% above the Street median, indicating some upside if growth stabilizes.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $25.5 for FY 2026
Continue to increase full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance reflecting strong operating results and underlying business strength.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.
The market appears to price ELV as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is some fragility due to weak execution quality, which could impact future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has consistently raised guidance for adjusted diluted EPS and operating cash flow. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given the recent trend of earnings surprises trending down.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the ability of management to maintain or raise guidance, the performance of sector bellwethers like UNH and CVS, and the overall economic environment, particularly job growth. Any reversal in guidance could significantly impact credibility.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Additionally, the company raised its FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance, boosting investor confidence. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance was raised from $25.50 in 2025-Q4 to $27.00 in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong operating results and underlying business strength. Management has consistently raised or reaffirmed this guidance, and the trajectory is delivering.
“FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to at least $27.00, reflecting strong second quarter operating results.”
“FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance raised to at least $26.75, supported by underlying business strength.”
“Projected FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to be at least $25.50.”
“Reaffirm FY 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of approximately $30.00.”
“Revising FY 2025 adjusted diluted EPS to approximately $30.00.”
Breaks if: Operating cash flow falls below $5.0 billion in FY 2026
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below -1% YoY
Breaks if: Buybacks drop below $0.8 billion per quarter
Overall, ELV's position is supported by strong fundamentals and sector momentum, but it must navigate potential risks carefully. Not investment advice.