Enphase Energy (ENPH)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.37+0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ENPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
ENPH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
of this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and shall not be incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the dat…
Why it matters: Better gross margins would show that cost management efforts are starting to pay off.
Supportive ifQ2 gross profit is over $100.39M. This shows a recovery in gross margins.
Worry ifQ2 gross profit stays below $100.39M, suggesting continued margin pressure.
Why it matters: More shipments show strong demand for energy storage solutions.
Supportive ifShipments of IQ Batteries exceed 150 MWh in Q3, showing strong market demand.
Worry ifShipments of IQ Batteries drop below 100 MWh in Q3, indicating weak demand.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if the company can maintain revenue growth amid market challenges.
Watch forQ3 revenue guidance confirmed within the $290M to $320M range, including $75M safe harbor.
Also watch forQ3 revenue guidance is below $290M. This shows possible demand weakness.
Why it matters: Advancements in IQ SST could open new markets and drive future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they hit key technical goals. Customer work is progressing.
Worry ifThere are no major updates on IQ SST development or customer work by year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$351 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $699 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,151 loss on $10,000 · 51.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This guidance will indicate how well the company can manage costs amid tariff impacts.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin guidance is between 42% and 45%. This shows good cost management.
Less concerning ifGross margin guidance is below 42%. This means cost pressures are getting worse.
Why it matters: Maintaining gross margin is crucial for profitability. It shows how well Enphase is managing costs.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin for Q3 2026 lands within the 42% to 45% range.
Less concerning ifGross margin is below 42%. This shows rising costs or pressure on prices.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds $282.90M, showing a positive trend compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below $282.90M. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Stable demand would show recovery in the U.S. market after recent drops.
Supportive ifSell-through demand increases by at least 10% from Q1 levels.
Worry ifDemand keeps falling, showing the market is still weak.
Why it matters: A notable rise in U.S. shipments would signal recovery in demand. This could improve revenue and margins.
Supportive ifU.S. shipments increase by more than 20% compared to Q1.
Worry ifU.S. shipments decline further or remain flat.
Why it matters: Good cost management is key for making money. High costs mean ongoing financial problems.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating expenses were under $120 million. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating expenses are above $124 million. This shows ongoing waste.
Why it matters: If revenue falls below this level, it shows demand and market problems.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $290 million. This shows weak demand.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $320 million. This shows strong market recovery.
Why it matters: A decline would show ongoing problems in the U.S. market. This is after the tax credit ended.
Worry ifU.S. revenue reported down more than 20% compared to Q1, confirming market challenges.
Less concerning ifU.S. revenue remains stable or grows compared to Q1, suggesting recovery in demand.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows rising costs and operational issues.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin reported below 42% in Q3, signaling cost issues.
Less concerning ifGross margin is above 45%. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: More certified installers can drive product adoption and sales growth.
Supportive ifThe number of certified installers is over 25,000. This shows successful expansion.
Worry ifThe certified installer count is stuck or going down from 25,000.