Enphase Energy (ENPH)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.55+3.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ENPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -13.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ENPH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
of this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and shall not be incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the dat…
Why it matters: This checks if revenue stays within management's range as safe harbor revenue falls from $85.0 million to about $51.2 million.
Watch forQ4 revenue tops $255 million, above the outlook range, supporting stronger demand or shipments.
Also watch forQ4 revenue falls below $225 million, under the outlook range and in line with weaker sales.
Why it matters: Battery shipments rose from 103.1 MWh in Q1 to 129.9 MWh in Q3. G5 is a named product meant to support the next stage of storage growth.
Supportive ifEnphase announces a G5 launch or first shipments, with capacity up to 30 kWh and the stated lower cost.
Worry ifEnphase delays the G5 launch or removes its stated capacity or cost goals.
Why it matters: These are the next named tests of IQ SST. Passing them would move the AI data center project closer to customer pilots in 2027.
Supportive ifBy Dec. 31, 2026, Enphase reports a successful 34.5 kV test and a megawatt-scale IQ SST demo.
Worry ifEither test misses the year-end goal, or Enphase reports a failure to reach the stated voltage or scale.
Why it matters: The company has over 50 potential customers and partners. Pilots remain key proof before planned sales in 2028.
Supportive ifEnphase names or confirms at least one IQ SST customer pilot starting in 2027.
Worry ifEnphase delays pilots beyond 2027 or says no customer pilot has begun by Dec. 31, 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$260 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $699 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,545 loss on $10,000 · 65.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 sell-through grew less than management expected. Another drop would point to weak demand beyond summer seasonality.
Worry ifIn Q4, global sell-through falls more than the 10% sequential decline in management's outlook.
Less concerning ifIn Q4, global sell-through falls 10% or less, or grows from Q3.
Why it matters: Q3 margin fell to 45.0% from 46.8%, mainly due to product mix. Q4 also faces a stated 2-point tariff impact.
Watch forQ4 non-GAAP gross margin exceeds 43%, above management's range.
Also watch forQ4 non-GAAP gross margin falls below 40%, under management's range.