Empire Petroleum Corp. (EP)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.060.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -17.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
EP — capital allocation — Creation
Dated 2026-09-16
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Empire raised compression capacity to support more gas sales. Higher flow would show that new wells are using that capacity.
Supportive ifA company update reports Texas gas flow above 9.5 MMcfd, with added wells tied in and gas sales rising.
Worry ifTexas gas flow stays at or below 9.5 MMcfd, or falls, despite added wells and compression.
Why it matters: The sector signal says energy revenue has been shrinking, with signs of a possible turn. Positive growth would confirm that change.
Watch forThe sector data show three-year revenue growth above 0%.
Also watch forThe sector data keep three-year revenue growth at or below 0%.
Why it matters: Empire has a 25% share in a three-well program. First sales would show that drilling has turned into revenue.
Supportive ifA company update confirms completions and sales from at least one of the three wells in Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo well reaches sales by year-end, or completion work is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The new thermal unit is meant to improve oil output. Its first results will test whether the retrofit works.
Supportive ifEmpire reports steam injection at the retrofitted unit in Q3. Starbuck's oil output rises by year-end.
Worry ifSteam injection does not start in Q3, or reports show no oil gain by year-end.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$266 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $815 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,536 loss on $10,000 · 45.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 sales were 23% below the prior year. A rebound would show that new wells are offsetting older declines.
Watch forQ3 net sales rise above Q2's 1,825 Boe/d and the year-over-year decline narrows from 23%.
Also watch forQ3 net sales fall below 1,825 Boe/d, or the year-over-year decline stays at 23% or worse.
Why it matters: The note adds near-term funding, but also creates a debt payment due in March 2027. A clear payoff plan would ease this funding concern.
Watch forA filing or company update confirms repayment by the note's March 2027 maturity. No new note is used for repayment.
Also watch forThe note is still unpaid at maturity. Empire reports an extension or new debt to repay it.