Empire Petroleum Corp. (EP)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.13+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 108.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -17.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 126.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
EP — officer change
Dated 2026-06-22
The filing is about the approval of a new compensation plan and does not involve any changes in management or executive roles.
Why it matters: A good decision can help Empire move forward with its CO2 EOR pilot project.
Supportive ifThe OCC rules in favor of Empire, allowing the CO2 EOR pilot project to proceed.
Worry ifThe OCC denies Empire's request, delaying the CO2 EOR pilot project.
Why it matters: Better sector performance may mean good market conditions for Empire Petroleum. This can raise revenue.
Supportive ifSector performance improves to a positive score. This shows recovery.
Worry ifSector performance drops more, making the situation worse.
Why it matters: New wells could boost production and revenue, supporting management's growth strategy. This is crucial for future earnings.
Supportive ifAt least 3 new wells come online and show production levels above 500 barrels per day.
Worry ifNo new wells are completed or production remains below 500 barrels per day.
Why it matters: Starting steam injection may raise oil production. It can also support thermal recovery.
Supportive ifSteam injection from the retrofitted thermal unit begins in Q3-2026.
Worry ifSteam injection is delayed beyond Q3-2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$254 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $815 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,101 loss on $10,000 · 51.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New wells can boost production and revenue. This is important for Empire's growth strategy.
Supportive ifAt least two new wells start production in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new wells come online or production remains unchanged.
Why it matters: A good resolution can lower operating costs. This helps financial performance in New Mexico.
Supportive ifThe final resolution confirms Empire's rights to the Residual Oil Zone. This cuts operating costs.
Worry ifThere may be delays or problems with Empire's rights to the Residual Oil Zone.
Why it matters: If the energy sector shows renewed growth, it could help Empire Petroleum's performance. This would signal a positive shift.
Supportive ifEnergy sector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifEnergy sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A activity can show growth. This may get investors interested.
Supportive ifA new acquisition or partnership can boost growth.
Worry ifNo news or bad news about M&A activity.
Why it matters: Updates on this project could explain Empire's rights in New Mexico.
Watch forThe New Mexico Conservation Commission gives a good ruling on Empire’s CO2 EOR test.
Also watch forThe ruling is bad. It limits Empire’s ability to work in the area.
Why it matters: Updates on this project may show progress in using the Residual Oil Zone. It could mean more production.
Watch forGood news on the CO2 EOR pilot project and its results.
Also watch forNegative updates or delays in the CO2 EOR pilot project.
Why it matters: The earnings report will reveal if production issues have been resolved and if growth is on track.
Watch forQ2-2026 earnings show a big recovery in production compared to Q1-2026.
Also watch forQ2-2026 earnings report shows low production and losses continue.
Why it matters: Higher gas volumes show that infrastructure is improving. This helps production and revenue grow.
Supportive ifTexas natural gas volumes were over 9 MMcfd in Q3-2026.
Worry ifTexas natural gas volumes remain below 9 MMcfd in Q3-2026.
Why it matters: Successful completions can lead to more production and cash flow. This backs Empire's growth plans.
Supportive ifAll three wells in the Louisiana program are completed and tied into sales by Q4-2026.
Worry ifOne or more wells in the Louisiana program are delayed beyond Q4-2026.