Reading EPR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPR free→Reading EPR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, EPR's valuation is above typical for the sector, with its earnings yield being relatively high. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $59.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $60 EPR trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $57 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $58–$66. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.76 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$201.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,950.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping dividend payments shows financial health and care for shareholders. This can help investors.
Confirms:Management says they will pay dividends in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Management says they will cut or stop dividends.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EPR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, EPR Properties (the "Company") announced its results of operations and financial condition for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The public announcement was made by means of a press release, the text of which is set forth in Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is hereby incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$58.00 – $65.50 (median $61.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EPR EPR Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | low |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
EPR Properties has increased its investment spending guidance for 2026 to a range of $500 million to $600 million.
EPR Properties has increased its disposition proceeds guidance for 2026 to a range of $50 million to $100 million.
EPR Properties continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend payments.
EPR Properties is focused on increasing its revenue over time.
EPR Properties aims to maintain its operating income levels.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows care for shareholders. This can bring in more investors.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend payment equal to or greater than $0.90 per share.
Disproves:Announcement of a dividend payment less than $0.90 per share.
Why it matters: A return to faster revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the business. This could help improve investor sentiment and support higher valuations.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 7%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 7%.
Why it matters: Higher investment spending could indicate confidence in future growth and expansion. This would be a positive signal for investors.
Confirms:Management plans to spend more on investments in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management keeps or cuts investment spending plans.
Why it matters: More money from property sales can help cash flow and support growth. This can help the stock.
Confirms:Management raises guidance for proceeds in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management cuts their guidance for proceeds.
Why it matters: Stabilizing operating income shows EPR can manage costs effectively. This is key for long-term growth.
Confirms:Operating income was above $100 million in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was below $95 million in Q2.