Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.12+2.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EPRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EPRT — capital allocation — The Notes and the Guarantee were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance…
Dated 2026-11-02
The Notes and the Guarantee were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act in transactions not involving any public offering. The Notes were resold by the initial purchasers to persons whom the initial purchasers reasonably believe are “qualified institutional buyers,” as defined in, and in accordance with, Rule 144A under the Securities Act. Any shares of the Guarantor’s common stock that may be issued upon exchange of the Notes will be issued in…
Why it matters: Settlement would bring in the cash already raised and lower debt on a pro forma basis. More unsettled shares would keep that cash from arriving.
Watch forEPRT reports that the 15.8 million unsettled shares have been settled and the $482.8M proceeds received.
Also watch forThe unsettled share count stays near 15.8 million, or EPRT reports less than $482.8M in proceeds.
Why it matters: This is EPRT's new 2027 outlook. Results in the range would show the company is keeping its growth plan on track.
Supportive ifReported 2027 AFFO per share is within the stated range of $2.10 to $2.18.
Worry ifEPRT cuts its 2027 AFFO range below $2.10, or reported AFFO per share falls below $2.10.
Why it matters: EPRT's tenants run consumer-facing businesses. A drop in retail sales could strain tenant results and rent payments.
Worry ifThe November 17 report shows retail sales down from the prior month.
Less concerning ifThe November 17 report shows retail sales up from the prior month.
Why it matters: EPRT raised its 2026 AFFO range. Meeting it would support the recent increase; a miss would undo that proof.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 AFFO per share lands within the raised range of $2.02 to $2.05.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 AFFO per share falls below $2.02, or EPRT cuts the range before reporting results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $206 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,731 loss on $10,000 · 27.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: That range is built into EPRT's 2027 AFFO outlook. Deals near the stated 7.7% cash cap rate would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifIn 2027, closed investments total $1.0B to $1.5B, with a weighted average cash cap rate near 7.7%.
Worry ifIn 2027, closed investments fall below $1.0B, or the cash cap rate drops well below 7.7%.
Why it matters: EPRT raised its quarterly dividend from $0.30 to $0.32. Another increase would extend that record; a cut would reverse it.
Watch forThe board declares a quarterly dividend above $0.32 per share.
Also watch forThe board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.32 per share.