Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.64-0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EPRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
EPRT — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-24
Other Events. On July 24, 2026, Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) and Essential Properties, L.P. (the “Operating Partnership”) entered into an ATM Equity Offering Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Capital One Securities, Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, Evercore Group L.L.C., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC,…
Why it matters: The new CFO may change financial management and strategy. This could affect growth and stability.
Watch forThere are good changes in financial strategy or better numbers after the CFO change.
Also watch forThere are bad financial results or no clear plan after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Higher investment volume signals strong growth and effective capital deployment. This can boost future revenue.
Supportive ifInvestment volume is over $350 million for Q3.
Worry ifInvestment volume is under $300 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for long-term growth. Trends here indicate financial health.
Worry ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 5%.
Less concerning ifOperating income decreases year over year by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Changes in debt terms could affect the company's financial health and cost of capital. This is crucial for future investments.
Watch forNew debt issuance has a significantly lower coupon rate than 5.38%.
Also watch forNew debt issuance has a coupon rate higher than 5.38%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$64 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $196 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,425 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower rent growth may show weaker demand for leased properties.
Worry ifSame-store rent growth for Q2 2026 is reported above 1.5%.
Less concerning ifSame-store rent growth for Q2 2026 falls below 1.5%.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends shows good financial health. It shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase to more than $0.32 per share.
Worry ifManagement maintains dividend at $0.32 per share or lowers it.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can increase revenue. They also show management's growth plans.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of a property acquisition. It is valued over $10 million.
Worry ifNo new property purchases will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in AFFO guidance show how well the company makes cash. This affects investor trust.
Watch forManagement raises AFFO per share guidance to more than $2.05.
Also watch forManagement lowers AFFO per share guidance to less than $2.01.
Why it matters: Low debt shows the company is stable. It also manages money carefully.
Supportive ifNet debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA is less than 4.5x.
Worry ifNet debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA is more than 4.5x.
Why it matters: A decline in occupancy could signal tenant issues and affect revenue stability. This is key for a REIT.
Worry ifOccupancy rate remains at or above 99% for Q3.
Less concerning ifOccupancy rate drops below 99% for Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows that management wants to raise earnings and dividends.
Supportive ifAFFO per share reported at $2.05 or higher, confirming strong earnings growth.
Worry ifAFFO per share was below $2.01. This shows weaker performance than expected.
Why it matters: High investment activity shows growth and smart use of money.
Supportive ifInvestment activity is more than $400 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifInvestment activity is less than $300 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: High occupancy rates mean strong demand for properties. They also show good management.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates were above 99.5%. This confirms strong demand from tenants.
Worry ifOccupancy rates dropped below 99%. This may mean problems with keeping tenants.
Why it matters: Higher dividend growth shows strong cash flow and management's focus on returns.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend increases by more than 3% in 2026.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend increase is less than or equal to 3% in 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to management's priority of increasing revenue through acquisitions. Strong growth signals success in this strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grew more than 10% from last year. This shows good property buys.
Worry ifQ2 revenue grew less than 5% from last year. This shows problems with acquisitions.