Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Equillium Inc (EQ)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.33-5.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Progress in developing EQ504 using private placement funds | The company has raised money from a private placement. | Intact | Development of EQ504 stalls or funds are insufficient | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EQ is a speculative, loss-making development-stage business rather than an established earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: EQ504 reached first-patient dosing, but financial performance is weak and management execution is described as volatile.
The valuation evidence points to EQ being cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The snapshot does not specify what investors expect for clinical progress or financing, so the expectations gap is unclear.
Near term, the company is likely to remain loss-making while advancing clinical development; reported R&D spending was lower than in the cited 2025 quarters, and that does not show clinical efficacy. Cash declined from March to June, while a new financing tranche supports management’s stated runway into 2029; the equity financing and weak results remain important risks.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on substantive clinical progress for EQ504 and whether the company can preserve its stated runway while developing EQ302. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, EQ remains a high-risk, loss-making development story with early clinical progress and financing support, but no demonstrated path to stronger financial performance in the evidence provided. The key test is whether clinical milestones advance without worsening the funding and execution picture. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Equillium is working to fund operations through 2029. |
| Intact |
| Cash falls below levels needed to fund operations into 2029 |
Cash and cash equivalents: $57.164M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sufficient cash to fund operations through 2029. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Date unavailable57,164,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Control losses and improve cash flow | A supporting condition in Equillium Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Reduce net loss and improve cash flow toward breakeven. | Improving | Losses worsen or cash flow deteriorates further | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.25 → $-0.23 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.27 | $0 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.25 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.23 | $16,524,000 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.