Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Erasca, Inc. (ERAS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.27-11.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ERAS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fund operations into second half of 2028 | The company aims to fund operations into the second half of 2028. | Intact | Cash runway falls short of H2 2028 funding needs | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Erasca expects its cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities to fund operations into the second half of 2028.” “The transaction, supported by high-quality new and existing healthcare-focused investors, significantly strengthened Erasca’s balance sheet.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-development thesis, not an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: trial progress and funding are on track, but recent financial performance is weak and confidence in the overall assessment is low.
The snapshot provides no valuation level or clear account of what market expectations already assume, so whether ERAS is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Its muted recent price reaction and lack of flagged pricing fragility do not establish that the company’s execution risks are reflected in expectations.
Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated, and the company has missed in recent quarters. Management says its cash and marketable securities support operations into the second half of 2028, while ERAS-0015 trials have advanced ahead of schedule; licensing and collaboration progress is mixed, with no direct financial impact reported. The recent COO transition, litigation filing, and weak financial performance add uncertainty.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether ERAS avoids another guidance cut or earnings miss and continues advancing ERAS-0015 clinical trials. Funding through the second half of 2028 is a key support, while expanding collaborations could help development but has not yet shown a direct financial effect. A weaker jobs trend could weigh on sector sentiment, while strong results and guidance from sector peers could provide a tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year view rests on clinical execution and funding, with meaningful near-term reporting risk and little evidence yet of financial strength. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Advance ERAS-0015 clinical trials | Erasca is advancing its ERAS-0015 clinical trials despite challenges. | Improving | Failure to meet mid-2026 Phase 1 data readout or dose escalation delays | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Both of these milestones were completed ahead of the original second half of 2026 guidance.” “• Robust Preliminary Dose Escalation Monotherapy Data for ERAS-0015: In April 2026, Erasca announced positive preliminary dose escalation data for ERAS-0015 monotherapy including robust response rates in KRAS G12X non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Manage IP litigation risk on ERAS-0015 | A primary condition in Erasca, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Resolve or mitigate IP litigation without blocking ERAS-0015 development. | Under Pressure | Unfavorable IP rulings that halt ERAS-0015 development | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.55 → $-0.62 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.55 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.55 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.55 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.55 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.55 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.55 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.56 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.56 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.56 | $500,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.55 | $600,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.55 | $600,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.55 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.59 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.60 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.62 | $375,000 | 7 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.