ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESE)
NYSEIndustrialsHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$225.79-5.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers
ESE — M&A activity — Termination
Dated 2026-10-02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement Upon the effectiveness of the New Credit Agreement, the Existing Credit Agreement (as defined below) was terminated. The Existing Credit Agreement had been scheduled to mature by its terms on August 30, 2028.
Why it matters: The purchase adds debt and new financing terms. The next filing can show the cost of funding the deal.
Worry ifESCO reports higher interest costs or new debt terms that exceed the May 2026 credit agreement terms.
Less concerning ifESCO reports funding costs and debt terms in line with the May 2026 agreement, with no added financing costs.
Why it matters: Test orders reached a record backlog, helped by data center filters and industrial shielding. Lower orders could weaken that growth signal.
Supportive ifTest orders exceed $80 million in the next reported quarter, with book-to-bill above 1.0.
Worry ifTest orders fall below $70 million or book-to-bill drops below 1.0.
Why it matters: ESCO completed the Megger purchase on October 1. Its first results will show how the added business affects sales and profit.
Watch forESCO reports Megger revenue and says its sales and profit meet or exceed the deal plan.
Also watch forESCO says Megger sales or profit fell short of the deal plan. It cites delays in joining operations or lost customers.
Why it matters: Doble orders rose 30% in Q3, while NRG orders fell after U.S. renewables tax credits ended. Doble is the clearer test of utility demand.
Supportive ifDoble orders top $100 million in the next reported quarter and stay above the prior-year level.
Worry ifDoble orders fall below $100 million or drop below the prior-year level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $374 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,460 loss on $10,000 · 34.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management set Q4 adjusted EPS guidance at $2.55 to $2.65. A result below $2.55 would miss that range.
Worry ifThe Q4 FY2026 report shows adjusted EPS below $2.55.
Less concerning ifThe Q4 FY2026 report shows adjusted EPS of $2.55 or more.