ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESE)
NYSEIndustrialsHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$274.02+0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 29, 2026, the Registrant and certain of its subsidiaries entered into Credit Agreement with a group of banks led by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent, Bank of America, N.A. as syndication agent, BMO Capital Markets Corp., Commerce Bank, Regions Capital Markets, a Division of Regions Bank, TD Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association as co-documentation agents (the “New Credit Agreement”). The New Credit Agreement wi…
Why it matters: Strong new orders suggest future revenue growth and demand for ESCO's products.
Supportive ifEntered orders in Q3 2026 exceed $400 million.
Worry ifEntered orders in Q3 2026 fall below $300 million.
Why it matters: Finalizing this acquisition could boost ESCO's growth and market position. It is a key priority for management.
Supportive ifA press release says the Megger Group acquisition is complete.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems stopping the acquisition from closing.
Why it matters: Closing the Megger deal will expand ESCO's capabilities and market reach. This is a key part of their growth strategy.
Supportive ifRegulators approve the deal. It closes as planned in Q1 fiscal 2027.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed or not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: Guidance for Q4 2026 will show if ESCO maintains its growth momentum. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Watch forQ4 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance is raised above $2.65 per share.
Also watch forQ4 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance is lowered below $2.55 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,480 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows ESCO is efficient and manages costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $43.86 million in Q2 2026 to above $45 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays below $43.86 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sustained backlog growth signals strong future revenue. It shows demand across ESCO's segments.
Supportive ifBacklog increases to over $1.6 billion by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifBacklog drops or stays below $1.54 billion.
Why it matters: Slower growth in operating income may mean margin pressures. This impacts overall profits.
Worry ifOperating income growth slows to less than 5% in Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth remains above 10% in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows below 18% in Q4 2026, it may signal market weakness. This could affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue growth falls below 18% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue growth remains above 21% year over year.
Why it matters: More than 19% revenue growth shows strong performance. It also shows market demand in segments.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 19% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth falls below 19% year-over-year.