Element Solutions (ESI)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.01+2.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
ESI — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-08-27
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on July 6, 2026, Element Solutions Inc (“Element Solutions”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. (“Solstice”), Solar Merger Sub One Inc. (“Merger Sub One) and Solar Merger Sub Two LLC (together with Merger Sub One, the “Merger Subs”). On August 27, 2026, Element Solutions, Solstice and the Merger Subs entered into a Termination Agreement (the “Termin…
Why it matters: The merger is key for Element Solutions' growth strategy. It could reshape the company's future.
Supportive ifThe merger closes in the first half of 2027 with all necessary approvals secured.
Worry ifThe merger may have big delays or may not get regulatory approval.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean the materials sector is improving.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: More ups and downs could hurt profits. This may make investors less confident.
Watch forQuarterly earnings rise a lot even with changes in metal prices.
Also watch forQuarterly earnings decline due to adverse swings in metal prices.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows good financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifA dividend payment that is the same or higher than last quarter.
Worry ifA company announced it will cut or stop its dividend.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $464 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,001 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High growth in the Electronics segment is key for the company. It shows strong demand and a good strategy.
Supportive ifElectronics segment revenue growth is reported at or above 20% YoY.
Worry ifElectronics segment revenue growth is less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows good cost management. This helps the company's finances.
Supportive ifOperating income increases to at least $120 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $100 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Signs of growth in the materials sector could benefit Element Solutions. This may improve their revenue outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 2% in the next quarter.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher margins show better cost control and profit, which help gain investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 28%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is less than 27%.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management's confidence in growth and efficiency. Meeting this target shows strong performance.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is $180 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $180 million.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving net income margin shows good cost management. This is important for investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income margin reported at or above 7.9% in Q3.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 7.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in metal prices can greatly affect profits and earnings.
Watch forQ2 earnings show resilience despite metals price increases.
Also watch forQ2 earnings decline due to adverse metals price swings.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments can show management's confidence in cash flow. Stable or growing dividends are a good sign.
Watch forManagement says the dividend payout will increase.
Also watch forManagement says the dividend will be cut or stopped.
Why it matters: Consistent dividends show financial strength. They promise to provide value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a cash dividend of $0.08 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend payment below $0.08 per share.
Why it matters: Good integration can boost revenue and efficiency. This helps the company’s market position.
Supportive ifManagement says they have good results from merging Micromax and EFC. These mergers added revenue.
Worry ifIntegration problems led to lower revenue from these acquisitions. This is less than expected.