Energy Services of America Corp. (ESOA)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.79+4.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESOA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESOA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations On August 10, 2026, Energy Services of America Corporation issued a press release disclosing its results of operations and financial condition at and for the three and nine months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release dated August 10, 2026, is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is being furnished to the SEC and shall not be deemed filed for any purpose.
Why it matters: The health of the industrial sector affects Energy Services of America. A slowdown may hurt their performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth continues to decline below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving revenue is key to showing growth. Continued decline raises concerns.
Supportive ifRevenue grows year over year from $93.2M in 2026-Q2.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year from $93.2M in 2026-Q2.
Why it matters: An increase shows that management wants to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.04 per share.
Worry ifNo announcement of a dividend increase or a decrease in the dividend.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and demand for projects.
Supportive ifBacklog exceeds $350 million, showing strong project wins and demand.
Worry ifIf backlog drops below $325 million, it may mean project delays.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,178 loss on $10,000 · 41.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows trust in cash flow and financial health. This affects how investors feel.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.04 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is cut below $0.04 per share.
Why it matters: A smaller backlog may mean less future revenue and delays in projects.
Worry ifBacklog was below $280 million.
Less concerning ifBacklog remains above $280 million.
Why it matters: A new COO can bring fresh strategies and leadership to support growth initiatives. This could impact future performance.
Supportive ifThe company expects better operating income in the next two quarters after the COO starts.
Worry ifThere is no clear improvement in operating income or growth after the COO started.
Why it matters: A lower growth rate may show less demand in Energy Services' areas.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was below 25% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 25% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs or project issues.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 11% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays at or above 11% in Q3.
Why it matters: Operating income has fallen a lot. A rise would show better management.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q3 shows an increase from $1.1M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income continues to decline or stays below $1.1M in Q3.
Why it matters: New projects can drive future revenue and indicate strong market demand.
Supportive ifNew gas transmission projects worth over $10 million have been announced.
Worry ifNo new gas transmission projects announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The COO's actions can create better plans. They can also improve operations.
Watch forManagement says the COO's actions help the growth strategy.
Also watch forNo big changes or improvements came from the COO's actions.