Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
EVgo, Inc. (EVGO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.75-3.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EVGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA between -$20 million and $20 million in 2026 | They target adjusted EBITDA between -$20 million and $20 million. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA worse than -$20 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent earnings beats and a stronger composite insight are positive, but financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.
EVGO trades at a premium to peers, which suggests the market already gives credit to the durability of its business. The expectations gap is negative, so current expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence; the snapshot rates pricing as justified, with low fragility.
For 2026, management is on track for its updated revenue guidance based on first-half results, although second-quarter revenue was lower than the first quarter. Network expansion is mixed, with 100 net new stalls in the second quarter against a full-year goal of 1,350 to 1,625, while the Tesla deployment is still early and has no reported stall count or revenue impact. Near-term risk is rated quiet, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
The multi-year view depends on delivering the 2026 revenue goal, accelerating network additions, and showing that the Tesla agreement can translate into deployment and revenue. A guidance cut or slower expansion would weaken the thesis. The evidence also flags Consumer Discretionary sector bellwethers as a possible tailwind or warning signal, though this connection is not explained in detail.
EVGO has some positive execution signals, but it remains loss-making and its network growth needs to pick up for the multi-year thesis to strengthen. The premium valuation leaves limited room for execution to disappoint. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in EVgo, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $410-$470 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| Full year revenue falls below $410 million in 2026 |
Revenue: $82.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $410-$470 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202682,648,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Guidance EVgo is updating full year 2026 guidance as follows: • Total new stalls of 1,350 - 1,625 • Total revenue of $400 – $430 million • Adjusted EBITDA * of $(25) million – $(5) million The Company expects Q1 and Q4 2026 to be the strongest quarters of the year for non-charging revenue.” “2026 Financial Guidance EVgo is affirming full year 2026 guidance as follows: • Total revenue of $410 – $470 million • Adjusted EBITDA * of $(20) million – $20 million EVgo is initiating second quarter 2026 guidance as follows: • Total revenue of $75 - $85 million • Adjusted EBITDA of $(12.5) - $(7.5) million The Company expects Q1 and Q4 2026 to be the strongest quarters of the year for non-charging revenue.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Effective financial leadership and oversight | New leadership may improve financial control. | Improving | Leadership changes fail to improve financial oversight or results | Qualitative: 3 earnings beats + Tesla deal vs sustained positive impact target EVGO beat earnings in Mar, May, Aug 2026; appointed new CFO/CAC; secured Tesla deployment deal. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase quarterly revenue to $75-$85 million in 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in EVgo, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $75-$85 million. | Intact | Q2 2026 revenue falls below $75 million | Revenue: $82.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $75-$85 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 202682,648,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.34 → $-0.43 · observed estimates
$0.56B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.34 | $561,018,935 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.34 | $561,018,935 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.34 | $561,018,935 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.34 | $561,018,935 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.34 | $561,018,935 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.33 | $556,094,610 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.44 | $544,392,350 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.44 | $544,392,350 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.44 | $544,392,350 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.44 | $537,170,130 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.38 | $547,914,578 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.36 | $538,083,292 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.36 | $538,083,292 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.36 | $538,083,292 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.36 | $538,083,292 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.36 | $538,083,292 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.35 | $531,897,881 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.35 | $531,897,881 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.35 | $531,897,881 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.35 | $531,897,881 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.35 | $531,897,881 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.37 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.38 | $529,276,149 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.42 | $529,073,159 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.42 | $529,073,159 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.42 | $529,073,159 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.43 | $521,585,658 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.43 | $518,554,853 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.43 | $522,098,362 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.