Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Evommune, Inc. (EVMN)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.37+5.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EVMN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance Atopic Dermatitis Phase 2b data in H2 2026 | It is advancing Phase 2b data for atopic dermatitis in H2 2026. | Under Pressure | Phase 2b data not advanced or negative by end of H2 2026 | Phase 2b primary endpoint missed September 2026 news confirms EVO756 Phase 2b trial missed primary endpoint, triggering thesis break condition. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage business, not a steady compounder, with value dependent on clinical progress and future execution. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: cash supports operations through 2028, but recent performance is weak and the risk level is elevated.
The valuation model suggests EVMN is cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is 0.29, while the priced-in tag is marked unjustified, so the evidence does not support a clear view that current expectations are well grounded.
Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated, with a 0.56 estimated probability, and recent financial performance has been weak. Management has maintained cash and investments, which grew to $288.0 million by 2026-Q2, but the atopic dermatitis study for EVO756 missed its primary endpoints and was discontinued; migraine development continues.
The multi-year view hinges on progress with EVO756 in migraine and planned Phase 2b work for EVO301, alongside the ability to preserve cash through 2028. Near term, another guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data would add pressure; stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EVMN remains a high-risk clinical development story with a meaningful cash base but weak recent results and mixed program execution. The thesis depends on continued progress in migraine and EVO301, with limited evidence so far that offsets the recent setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Evommune, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material negative impact from litigation by end 2026. |
| Intact |
| Litigation causes trial delays or material financial loss |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $13 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Evommune, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=13 million USD. | Broken | revenue falls below $10 million in FY26 | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.21 → $-3.56 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.24 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.24 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.24 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.24 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.24 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.24 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.24 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.27 | $1,428,570 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.27 | $1,428,570 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.36 | $875,000 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.21 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.44 | $1,250,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.47 | $1,250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.49 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.42 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.55 | $250,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-3.56 | $222,222 | 9 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.