Extra Space Storage (EXR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-07-08
$143.99-2.53%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $143.99. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $144 EXR trades at 19× p/ffo, in line with its 16× p/ffo peer median — but our blended $127 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $140–$158. Note: our $127 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($140–$158). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $151 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$140.00 – $158.00 (median $148.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-17
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $148.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $174.40 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $162.26 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $92.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $80.46 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $138.38 | 17.6 | 7.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $101.86 | 13.5 | 7.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $61.44 | 4.0 | 15.49 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $34.65 | 7.8 | 4.46 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $58.08 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $145.33 | 32.6 | 4.46 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $61.80 | 13.5 | 4.58 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $198.06 | 17.6 | 11.28 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $147.16 | 13.5 | 10.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $49.05 | 4.0 | 12.37 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $35.31 | 7.8 | 4.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $148.08 | 32.6 | 4.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $251.54 | 17.6 | 14.33 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $188.06 | 13.5 | 13.95 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $42.20 | 4.0 | 10.64 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $30.38 | 7.8 | 3.91 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $127.42 | 32.6 | 3.91 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.