EXR
Extra Space StorageNYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EXR has a composite score of 11.8 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.5 and various macroeconomic factors, including a macro score of 26.3 and a sector score of 16.1. The analysis is provisional, reflecting potential changes in guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.16 (-0.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on Core FFO growthgrowthbehind14% progress
4/28: “The Company's Core FFO estimates for 2026 are between $8.05 and $8.35 per share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core FFO guidance for 2026 is set between $8.05 and $8.35 per share. This reflects management's focus on growth, with the trajectory showing consistent emphasis on Core FFO improvement.
- 2.Manage same-store NOI growthgrowthmixed40% progress
2/19: “Same-store NOI growth guidance for 2026 is between -2.25% and 1.25%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same-store NOI growth guidance for 2026 is between -2.25% and 1.25%. This indicates management's ongoing focus on managing NOI growth, though the trajectory shows limited progress with fluctuating guidance ranges.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 23%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −17%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 1.31 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 58/100, drawdown 67/100, beta 69/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on Core FFO growth
GrowthManagement aims to grow Core FFO, with guidance set between $8.05 and $8.35 for 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core FFO guidance for 2026 is set between $8.05 and $8.35 per share. This reflects management's focus on growth, with the trajectory showing consistent emphasis on Core FFO improvement.
14%CEO/CFO:“The Company's Core FFO estimates for 2026 are between $8.05 and $8.35 per share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Core FFO estimates for 2026 are between $8.05 and $8.35 per share.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“allowing us to increase our annual Core FFO guidance.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Same-store NOI growth (2.75)% 0.00%”
- #2
Manage same-store NOI growth
GrowthManagement is focused on managing same-store NOI growth, with guidance ranging from -2.25% to 1.25% for 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same-store NOI growth guidance for 2026 is between -2.25% and 1.25%. This indicates management's ongoing focus on managing NOI growth, though the trajectory shows limited progress with fluctuating guidance ranges.
40%CEO/CFO:“Same-store NOI growth guidance for 2026 is between -2.25% and 1.25%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-19Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-19Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Same-store NOI growth (2.25)% 1.25%”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Same-store NOI growth (2.75)% 0.00%”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Same-store NOI growth (3.00)% 0.25%”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXR Extra Space Storage | +12 | inexpensive | moderate |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Extra Space Storage Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Current Report, including the exhibit referenced herein, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 56
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.