Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Extra Space Storage (EXR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$160.12-0.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.87 → 4.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Core FFO per share grows to about $8.2 in 2026 | Extra Space Storage grows core FFO to about $8.2 per share in 2026. | Intact | Core FFO per share falls below $8.05 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EXR is a real estate business with a multi-year view that depends on steady operating improvement and Core FFO growth. The thesis is intact, and recent financial performance is in the top half of its industry, though management and earnings quality are rated neutral.
EXR trades at a 1.56 premium versus peers, so the valuation is expensive relative to them. The expectations gap is 0.3, with re-rating identified as the main valuation driver; the evidence does not specify exactly what earnings expectations the market assumes.
Near-term results show progress: Core FFO per share rose 4.3%, same-store NOI increased 4.6%, and occupancy improved to 94.0%. Management raised 2026 Core FFO guidance, but the risk rating recently moved from low to moderate, and the record includes recent misses despite two reported earnings beats.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued Core FFO growth and stronger same-store operations without a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while weak results or guidance from sector peers could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, EXR’s long-term thesis has operating support, but its premium to peers and moderate risk leave execution and sector conditions important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Same-store NOI rose 1.2% in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Same-store NOI growth falls below -2.25% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Third-party management platform grows to over 2,300 stores | The third-party management platform added 61 stores in Q1. | Intact | Number of third-party stores falls below 2,263 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.86 → $4.91 · observed estimates
$3.60B → $3.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.86 | $3,601,534,062 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.75 | $3,054,609,590 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.75 | $3,054,609,590 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.76 | $3,057,509,590 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.87 | $3,612,924,165 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.87 | $3,612,926,749 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.87 | $3,612,926,749 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.76 | $3,057,509,590 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.85 | $3,615,064,349 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.76 | $3,057,509,590 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.85 | $3,615,064,349 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.76 | $3,057,509,590 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.76 | $3,056,463,190 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.76 | $3,056,463,190 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.76 | $3,056,463,190 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.76 | $3,056,463,190 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.76 | $3,056,463,190 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.76 | $3,056,463,190 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.85 | $3,617,954,332 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.83 | $3,617,557,032 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.83 | $3,617,557,032 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.83 | $3,617,557,032 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.83 | $3,617,557,032 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.83 | $3,617,557,032 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.83 | $3,619,028,356 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.83 | $3,618,628,356 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.83 | $3,618,628,356 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.83 | $3,618,628,356 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.83 | $3,618,628,356 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.83 | $3,618,628,356 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.83 | $3,618,628,356 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.83 | $3,626,544,951 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.82 | $3,617,090,456 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.82 | $3,618,227,856 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.82 | $3,618,227,856 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.82 | $3,618,227,856 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.82 | $3,618,227,856 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.80 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.82 | $3,617,193,191 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.82 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.82 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.82 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.86 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.86 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.86 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.86 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.86 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.86 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.86 | $3,617,193,191 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.86 | $3,620,023,107 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.87 | $3,620,020,607 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.88 | $3,609,349,009 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.88 | $3,609,349,009 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.88 | $3,609,349,009 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.88 | $3,609,349,009 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.88 | $3,609,349,009 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.88 | $3,609,349,009 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.88 | $3,609,349,009 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.88 | $3,609,351,281 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.88 | $3,613,624,008 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.88 | $3,616,490,008 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.91 | $3,617,671,826 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.91 | $3,617,671,826 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.91 | $3,617,671,826 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.91 | $3,626,563,592 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.91 | $3,626,563,592 | 7 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.