First Advantage Corp. (FA)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.38+1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FA — Chair transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Director — Sharon Binger: The company appointed Sharon Binger as a Class I director and member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show management believes in the stock's value.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases are over $100 million by year-end.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases are below $100 million by year-end.
Why it matters: Exceeding last quarter's growth shows strong momentum and supports raised guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 14.9% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 8.6% year-over-year.
Why it matters: High customer retention shows strong product value and good market position.
Supportive ifCustomer retention rate stays above 97% in future reports.
Worry ifCustomer retention rate drops below 95%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for First Advantage Corp. and its peers.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the Industrials sector speeds up again, above 5%.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down, staying below 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $566 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,502 loss on $10,000 · 45.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The offering could affect share price and investor sentiment.
Watch forThe stock price stays steady or goes up after the secondary offering news.
Also watch forThe stock price drops a lot after the secondary offering news.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with growth plans and spending. It shows the company is healthy.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was over $49.4 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $40 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company keeps growing. This is an important measure.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth that meets or exceeds guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a drop in revenue or misses guidance by a lot.
Why it matters: Management raised revenue guidance to $1.67-$1.71 billion. This shows strong growth.
Supportive ifFull year 2026 revenue lands within the new guidance range of $1.67-$1.71 billion.
Worry ifRevenue falls below the previous guidance range of $1.625-$1.7 billion.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows good financial habits. It also helps the balance sheet.
Supportive ifThey announced debt prepayments over $45 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new debt prepayments or a cut in planned prepayments.
Why it matters: Sustained demand in verticals like retail and logistics is crucial for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says more customers want their products. This leads to more bookings.
Worry ifManagement says customer demand is down. There are fewer enterprise bookings.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows good financial health. It also shows careful use of money.
Supportive ifManagement says they will pay off over $70 million in debt early.
Worry ifNo new debt prepayments or an increase in total debt.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can maintain its growth momentum. Consistent growth supports management's guidance for the year.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 8.6% or more year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 5%, indicating a slowdown.