Reading FAF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FAF free→Reading FAF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FAF free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact sentiment. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $65.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $66 FAF trades at 10× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $74 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $70–$85. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.84 → $1.85 (+0.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 20.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$267.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,845.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 12, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk assessment. The sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current market environment.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows good finances. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:Dividends are declared at the same or higher levels as the previous quarter.
Disproves:Dividends are cut or suspended.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FAF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$70.00 – $85.00 (median $82.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-27
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FAF First American Financial Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Improve cash flow from operating activities to support business operations.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: First American is making more money. This is an important goal for management.
Confirms:In Q2, operating income grew by over 5% from last year.
Disproves:Operating income fell below 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could indicate a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations helps First American meet its goals.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities is up more than 10% from last year.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities is down compared to last year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April, 22, 2026, First American Financial Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K. As such, this information is not deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18…
Dennis J. Gilmore: Cancellation of unvested RSUs and PRSUs was voluntary and not in exchange for other compensation.