Fate Therapeutics, Inc. (FATE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.48+2.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FATE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FATE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-13
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of the general incorporation language of such filing, except as shall be expre…
Why it matters: More people joining shows demand and effectiveness for FT819 in autoimmune diseases. This helps the overall clinical plan.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the FT819-102 Phase 1 trial reaches over 30 patients treated by mid-2026.
Worry ifEnrollment stops or goes down. This shows problems in getting patients.
Why it matters: Submitting the IND for FT839 is crucial for its development in autoimmune diseases. It could open new treatment avenues.
Supportive ifThe IND application for FT839 is submitted to the FDA in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe IND submission is delayed or not submitted as planned.
Why it matters: Updates on CMC readiness will show how FT819 is developing. This is key for quick approvals.
Supportive ifFT819 receives positive feedback from the FDA on CMC readiness in the CDRP program.
Worry ifFDA has big concerns about FT819's CMC readiness.
Why it matters: Data from FT839 could show it helps treat autoimmune diseases. This would help it move forward.
Supportive ifData on safety and effectiveness from the FT839 trial will be shared at a big conference by late 2026.
Worry ifNo data or bad results were shared at the conference.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$346 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $891 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,158 loss on $10,000 · 41.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Fate Therapeutics is doing better financially. Investors will pay attention to revenue and loss numbers.
Watch forRevenue growth shows a good trend. Losses should decrease a lot compared to past quarters.
Also watch forRevenue keeps going down or losses get bigger compared to past quarters.
Why it matters: If the healthcare sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Fate Therapeutics. This would show a better market environment.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth remains below 10% or continues to slow.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets expectations. This impacts investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings report shows a beat on revenue or earnings per share compared to previous guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a miss on revenue or earnings per share compared to previous guidance.
Why it matters: Updates on cash reserves will indicate financial health. A strong cash position supports ongoing trials and operations.
Supportive ifCash reserves stay steady or grow, showing good expense management.
Worry ifCash reserves drop a lot, raising worries about staying in business.
Why it matters: Maintaining cash is key for operations and stability. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifThe company has $174.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments.
Worry ifCash reserves fall below $150 million.
Why it matters: Results from this trial will show how well FT836 works against tumors. Positive results could enhance the company's growth narrative.
Supportive ifFT836 shows strong anti-tumor effects in early results. These were shared at big conferences.
Worry ifResults show low effectiveness or safety issues. This raises worries about the program.
Why it matters: Maintaining cash into 2028 is key for operational stability. It shows the company can fund its projects.
Supportive ifThe company has cash, cash equivalents, and investments of at least $174.8 million.
Worry ifCash reserves are under $150 million. This shows there may be funding problems.
Why it matters: Continued co-funding is crucial for growth and development. It impacts future project funding.
Supportive ifThe announcement says Ono will keep co-funding after June 2026.
Worry ifThere is no announcement about co-funding from Ono by June 2026.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment shows strong interest in FT819. This supports its development for lupus nephritis.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the RECLAIM-LN trial completes by mid-2028 as planned.
Worry ifEnrollment is delayed beyond mid-2028 due to low patient recruitment.
Why it matters: Treating the first patient proves the new CAR T-cell method. It also grows the pipeline.
Supportive ifFirst patient is treated in the FT839 Phase 1/2 trial for autoimmune diseases.
Worry ifNo patients are treated in FT839 trial by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: New data may show FT819 works well and is safe. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifFT819 has good news about how well it works and its safety. This news is shared at big conferences.
Worry ifBad or unclear data on FT819 is shared at these events.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show financial health. This affects the ability to fund trials.
Worry ifCash position remains stable or improves in Q3 earnings report.
Less concerning ifCash position drops a lot, raising worries about financial health.