Reading FBIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FBIN free→Reading FBIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FBIN free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with FBIN trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on whether FBIN can reverse course and raise guidance next quarter, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $43 FBIN trades at 15× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $54 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $41–$70. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.99 → $0.83 (-15.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 14 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$360.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,829.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This is important after a big drop in Q1.
Confirms:Operating income increases to above $97M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income remains below $60.2M in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FBIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the Company’s first quarter 2026 results, as well as certain guidance for 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$41.00 – $70.00 (median $55.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FBIN Fortune Brands Innovations | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive revenue growth despite external challenges.
Management is committed to enhancing operating income through cost management.
Management has set a capital expenditure guidance range for 2026 to manage investments.
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth would show management's focus on growth is working. It is crucial after a revenue drop in Q1.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding $1,033.1M.
Disproves:Q2 revenue continues to decline year over year, staying below $1,011.3M.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is improving after the recent miss.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive sector growth could support FBIN's recovery. The sector is currently in a maturing phase.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 8%.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 8%.
Why it matters: Capex guidance affects how much the company can grow and operate well.
Confirms:Management confirms capex guidance of $110M to $125M during Q2 earnings.
Disproves:Management cuts capex guidance to below $110M during Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: These reports may affect consumer demand and impact revenue growth outlook.
Confirms one read:CPI and PPI reports show inflation going down. This helps revenue growth forecasts.
Confirms the other:CPI and PPI reports show inflation going up. This lowers revenue growth forecasts.