Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fortress Biotech Inc (FBIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.84-6.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FBIO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain FDA approval and commercial launch of ZYCUBO | Fortress Biotech has FDA approval for ZYCUBO, a rare disease drug. | Intact | Loss or suspension of FDA approval for ZYCUBO | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, small-cap healthcare business with a mix of commercial products and partnered drug programs. The long-term thesis is watchful: recent earnings beats and progress on sales and royalties are constructive, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
FBIO is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already subdued. The pricing evidence is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to a large mismatch between valuation and execution risk.
Over the multi-year view, product revenue and royalty income could keep growing if management sustains market access gains and advances partnered programs. Near term, erratic earnings surprises and a 53% estimated miss probability make the next report a key check; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. The sector backdrop has improved, but recent financial performance is still weak.
The thesis depends on continued growth in dermatology sales and royalties, alongside progress on clinical development and regulatory submissions. It also hinges on whether upcoming guidance holds up and whether healthcare-sector strength persists; weaker jobs data could raise recession concerns for cyclical names.
For the next 1 to 3 years, FBIO has evidence of commercial and royalty progress, but the long-term thesis remains uncertain because execution is uneven and risk is high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Fortress Biotech Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Stable management with no major governance issues. |
| Intact |
| Major management turnover or governance issues arise |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase royalty revenue from ZYCUBO and UNLOXCYT | The company aims to increase royalty revenue from ZYCUBO and UNLOXCYT. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 40% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 14.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=61% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202614.043746 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Journey Medical also continues to scale Emrosi®, securing a third major GPO contract that expanded payer access to over 150 million commercial lives.” “Journey Medical reported net product revenues of $17.8 million for the second quarter of 2026, compared to net product revenues of $15.0 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.50 → $-1.00 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.50 | $123,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.00 | $113,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.