Falcon's Beyond Global, Inc. (FBYD)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.14+1.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FBYD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
FBYD — director transition
Dated 2026-02-17
Director — Iraida Que De Vera: The company elected a new director and increased the board size.
Why it matters: This shows that the company is making more money and working better.
Supportive ifOperating income surpasses $10M in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $6M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New contracts can boost revenue and validate growth strategy. Current pipeline shows promise.
Supportive ifNew contracts worth over $10 million were announced for Falcon's Attractions.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue from the VAI Agreements will boost overall revenue and validate new projects. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifRevenue from the VAI Agreements is over $10 million by Q3 2026. This shows the projects are working.
Worry ifRevenue from the VAI Agreements is under $5 million by Q3 2026. This shows project delays or problems.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger recovery for Falcon's Beyond.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It is staying below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$382 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,510 loss on $10,000 · 15.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,123 loss on $10,000 · 81.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Doubling FCG revenue is key for long-term growth. Current revenue is not meeting this goal.
Supportive ifFCG revenue for Q3 2026 exceeds $26 million, showing strong growth.
Worry ifFCG revenue for Q3 2026 is below $20 million, indicating slow progress.
Why it matters: The VAI Agreements are worth $18 million. Progress updates will show if the company is on track with these projects.
Supportive ifMilestone payments are received on time for the VAI Agreements.
Worry ifThere are delays in milestone payments or project work.
Why it matters: Management wants to cut negative cash flow. This is important for financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations improves to less than negative $2.75M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations worsens to more than negative $2.75M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A growing pipeline shows future profits and business growth.
Supportive ifThe pipeline is over $28.4 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifContracted pipeline falls below $28.4 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Doubling revenue in the FCG division shows strong growth. This is key for the company's future.
Supportive ifFCG division revenue reaches at least $8.1M in the next quarter.
Worry ifFCG division revenue stays below $6M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A growing pipeline means more money and business growth.
Supportive ifFalcon's Attractions pipeline is more than $28.4 million.
Worry ifFalcon's Attractions pipeline is less than $28.4 million.
Why it matters: A smaller adjusted EBITDA loss shows better profit. This matches what management wants.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss narrows to less than $4 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss remains above $5 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Managing cash flow is vital for financial health. Recent cash flow has been inconsistent.
Watch forCash from operations for Q3 2026 is positive or less negative than $2 million.
Also watch forCash from operations for Q3 2026 worsens to more than negative $4 million.
Why it matters: Higher operating income is important for making money. Recent results show mixed signs.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q3 2026 is positive. It is more than $1 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q3 2026 is still negative. It is below $0.5 million.