FuelCell Energy Inc (FCEL)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.95+1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 51.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FCEL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 2, 2026, FuelCell Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results and providing a business update as of and for the three and nine months ended July 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is not deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section…
Why it matters: This helps check progress on what management wants to achieve.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth compared to $35.6 million in Q2 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline from $35.6 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Cutting operating losses is important for FuelCell's finances. This shows better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating losses improve by more than 20% compared to Q2.
Worry ifOperating losses worsen or improve by less than 10%.
Why it matters: Backlog is a key indicator of future revenue. A significant change could signal demand shifts.
Watch forBacklog grows to over $1.2 billion, showing strong demand and new contracts.
Also watch forBacklog is now below $1.1 billion. This shows that demand is getting weaker.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good capital management. This is critical for growth.
Watch forCapital spending was within the $200-$275 million range for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending was outside the $200-$275 million range for 2026.
Why it matters: Backlog trends will indicate demand for FuelCell Energy's products. A significant increase or decrease will inform growth prospects.
Watch forBacklog increases from $1.14 billion in Q2 2026.
Also watch forBacklog decreases further from $1.14 billion.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows better efficiency. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported at -$25 million or better in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains worse than -$30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Smaller losses mean better cost management. This matters for management.
Supportive ifQ3 operating losses were less than -$75 million.
Worry ifQ3 operating losses were more than -$80 million.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows more demand for FuelCell Energy's products and services.
Supportive ifBacklog increases from $1.14 billion as of April 30, 2026, to a higher figure in the next report.
Worry ifBacklog continues to decline or remains stagnant in the next reporting period.
Why it matters: Completion of the offering could provide needed funds for expansion and operations. This is crucial for FuelCell's growth plans.
Supportive ifThe offering is done and funds are in. This allows for planned spending.
Worry ifThe offering does not finish because of market issues. This limits money for growth.
Why it matters: This delivery marks the start of a key agreement for data center power solutions. Success here could boost future orders.
Supportive ifThe first 30 MW of power was delivered to Fit Energy on time.
Worry ifThere is a delay or failure in delivering the first 30 MW to Fit Energy.
Why it matters: An increase in the backlog shows strong demand for FuelCell's products. It is crucial for future revenue.
Supportive ifThe backlog will grow to over $1.3 billion in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifCommitted backlog decreases or fails to grow in the next quarterly report.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$667 on $10,000 · ±6.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,132 loss on $10,000 · 11.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,001 loss on $10,000 · 60.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.