Reading FCFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FCFS free→Reading FCFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FCFS free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, FCFS is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 121% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $224.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $225 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $103 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 118% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.40 → $2.41 (+0.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$272.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,275.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for FirstCash's performance. A drop signals a potential slowdown.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 13% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 13% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FCFS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 1, 2026, FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) closed its previously announced private offering of $750,000,000 of 6.125% senior notes due 2034 (the “Notes”) issued by the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, FirstCash, Inc. (the “Issuer”). The Notes are unsecured senior obligations of the Issuer and are guaranteed by the Company and its domestic subsidiaries that guarantee its revolving unsecured credit facility and existing senior unsecure…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FCFS FirstCash | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth across all pawn segments.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through operational efficiencies.
Continue executing the share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
Why it matters: Better operating income growth shows that management is controlling costs well. This helps profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth in Q2 exceeds the previous quarter's growth of 30.5%.
Disproves:Operating income growth in Q2 is less than 30.5%.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback program will show how management is enhancing shareholder value. Investors will look for clarity on the timing and impact.
Confirms:Management shares a plan for the $750M share buyback program.
Disproves:No details are provided or the buyback program is delayed or canceled.
of this Current Report by this reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including the Earnings Release attached hereto, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by the speci…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 28, 2026, FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the pricing of an upsized private offering of $750,000,000 of 6.125% senior notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 27, 2026, FirstCash Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing the commencement of a private offering of $600,000,000 of senior notes due 2034. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise s…