Reading FCPT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FCPT free→Reading FCPT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FCPT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with FCPT compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $22 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 15% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.30 (-7.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$67.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$165.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,551.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track and cash flow is strong.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show revenue growth above 7% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FCPT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, FCPT Holdings, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “PSA”) with Shore Capital Real Estate Partners Holdco, LLC (the “Seller”) for the purchase of up to 102 properties operated as veterinary facilities (the “Properties”) for a purchase price of up to $268.0 million (before contractual purchase price adjustments and transaction expenses). All of the Properties are currently operated by Mission Pet Health. T…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FCPT Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | low |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
FCPT aims to grow its portfolio by acquiring additional real estate to lease.
FCPT is committed to increasing its dividend per share consistently.
FCPT focuses on improving cash flow from operations to support its financial health.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows financial health. It also shows investor confidence.
Confirms:Management will share news about a dividend increase next quarter.
Disproves:Management cuts or freezes the dividend payout.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth goes back to earlier highs. This shows a good trend.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps falling. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: This acquisition could boost revenue and align with the company's growth goals.
Confirms:The acquisition will close soon. The properties will be operational in the next quarter.
Disproves:The acquisition faces delays or fails to close as planned.
and Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 to this Form 8-K is deemed to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a…