Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc. (FDP)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.34-1.36%
Close 2026-07-23 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FDP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FDP — dividend update
Dated 2026-04-28
Other Events. On April 28, 2026, Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend will be paid on June 11, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 19, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Good integration can help Fresh Del Monte grow and work better. It is important for future success.
Supportive ifManagement says Del Monte Foods will help in upcoming earnings calls.
Worry ifManagement talks about problems with Del Monte Foods. There are delays in benefits.
Why it matters: Better gross margin shows improved pricing power and cost management. This can increase profits.
Supportive ifQ2 gross margin reported above 8.7%.
Worry ifQ2 gross margin reported below 8.5%.
Why it matters: Continued strength in cash flow supports operational stability and future investments. This is crucial for growth.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities stays above $44.1M in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operating activities falls below $44.1M. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income means better cost management. It also means better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is over $33.5 million. This reflects better cost management.
Worry ifOperating income is still under $33.5 million. This shows there are still cost problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $289 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,706 loss on $10,000 · 37.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can affect consumer spending on Fresh Del Monte's products.
Watch forCPI increases more than 0.5% in June 2026, indicating rising prices.
Also watch forCPI decreases or remains flat in June 2026, indicating stable prices.
Why it matters: Sales trends in this segment are crucial for overall revenue. A decline could indicate deeper issues in the fresh produce market.
Worry ifSales in the fresh and value-added products segment decline year over year by more than 5%.
Less concerning ifSales in the fresh and value-added products segment stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Strong sales from Del Monte Foods would support the acquisition and growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales from Del Monte Foods reported above $82.5 million.
Worry ifQ2 net sales from Del Monte Foods reported below $70 million.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is important for overall revenue recovery. This follows recent declines.
Supportive ifNet sales in fresh and value-added products increase from $549.0 million in Q1.
Worry ifNet sales continue to decline in fresh and value-added products segment.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifOperating income goes above $20.1 million in the next quarters.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays below $20.1 million. This shows ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Better margins in fresh products show improved pricing or cost control. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifGross margin in fresh and value-added products rises above 11% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margin in fresh and value-added products falls below 9% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher sales in prepared foods would show successful integration of Del Monte Foods. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifPrepared foods net sales for Q2 are over $82.5 million. This shows strong performance after the acquisition.
Worry ifPrepared foods net sales are below $82.5 million. This suggests there are integration challenges.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show how the Del Monte Foods acquisition impacts sales and profits.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows net sales growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows net sales decline or growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on the integration will show how well Fresh Del Monte is merging the new assets. This affects growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making good progress with Del Monte Foods. This is helping sales in prepared foods.
Worry ifThere are problems with integration. This may delay or hurt sales in prepared foods.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend. This shows there may be cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with investments and dividends. This shows good financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow for Q2 2026 is over $49.9 million. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $10.9 million. This may signal cash issues.