FedEx (FDX)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$312.86+0.94%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $312.86. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $313 FDX trades at 15× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median. Our $384 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $155–$445. Not investment advice.
$155.00 – $445.00 (median $350.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-06-26
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $18.08/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $350.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $982.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1058.67 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $133.48 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $238.13 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $514.07 | 31.3 | 16.45 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $791.20 | 19.0 | 39.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $600.89 | 28.1 | 21.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $631.57 | 31.3 | 20.21 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1359.29 | 3.5 | 384.66 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $295.60 | 14.6 | 20.21 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $165.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $316.66 | 15.7 | 20.21 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $643.44 | 31.3 | 20.59 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $595.38 | 31.3 | 19.05 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $913.88 | 28.1 | 32.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $697.30 | 31.3 | 22.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1381.18 | 3.5 | 390.85 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $326.37 | 14.6 | 22.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $349.62 | 15.7 | 22.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $656.61 | 31.3 | 21.01 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1208.61 | 28.1 | 43.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $704.61 | 31.3 | 22.55 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1395.66 | 3.5 | 394.95 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $329.79 | 14.6 | 22.55 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $353.29 | 15.7 | 22.55 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.