Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
FedEx (FDX)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$316.80-3.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.63 → 21.10 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FDX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return capital to stockholders via dividends and buybacks of about $4.3 billion | The company returns capital to shareholders with $4.3 billion in dividends and buybacks. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $3.5 billion annually | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical industrial business with a cost-transformation thesis, rather than a pure growth story. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: the latest results improved the signal, but elevated risk and volatile management execution keep the evidence mixed.
FDX is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially low. The priced-in assessment calls the setup justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a valuation case that depends on deeply pessimistic assumptions.
Near term, the latest quarter showed revenue of $22.9 billion and adjusted operating income of $1.20 billion, both higher than a year earlier; the company cited higher package yields and volumes and continued structural cost reductions. Progress on transformation remains mixed because the latest release did not quantify savings against the stated goal, and a guidance cut is a key near-term risk despite the current low estimated miss risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on cost and network changes improving efficiency while profitable growth continues. Continued strength at sector peers could support the industry backdrop, while peer misses or lower guidance could weaken it; FDX guidance and delivery against its transformation goals are also important swing factors.
The latest results strengthen the operating case, but limited quantified transformation progress, a headwind from the sector backdrop, and elevated risk leave the multi-year view watchful rather than settled. The evidence is medium confidence and hinges on sustained execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending is capped near $4.1 billion, showing disciplined investment. |
| Broken |
| Capital spending exceeds $4.5 billion in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $616M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: <= $4.1 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026616,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS between $16.55 and $17.75 in fiscal 2026 | Revenue is expected near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026 with EPS guidance up to $17.75. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $16.0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.21 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $16.55 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20261.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026 | Revenue is expected near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026 with EPS guidance up to $17.75. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $90 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $22.855B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $94.7 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202622,855,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026 | FedEx completed the spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026, unlocking value. | Recovered | Spin-off delayed beyond Q3 2026 or reversed | Spin-off completed (qualitative) News reports FedEx Freight shares surging and analysts backing growth targets, confirming the spin-off is complete and the entity is operating independently. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.18 → $21.10 · observed estimates
$92.85B → $95.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.18 | $92,847,327,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.38 | $94,851,036,699 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.36 | $94,811,109,693 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.45 | $94,934,434,360 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.45 | $94,934,434,360 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.45 | $94,934,434,360 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.45 | $94,934,434,360 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.30 | $94,569,072,849 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.37 | $94,630,357,059 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.37 | $94,630,357,059 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.37 | $94,630,357,059 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.37 | $94,630,357,059 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.37 | $94,630,357,059 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.37 | $94,630,357,059 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $21.37 | $94,630,371,016 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $21.37 | $94,631,739,437 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $21.37 | $94,631,739,437 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $21.31 | $94,737,469,030 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.43 | $94,737,469,030 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.63 | $94,925,861,777 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.63 | $94,925,861,777 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.63 | $94,925,861,777 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.60 | $95,383,944,960 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.60 | $95,383,910,515 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $21.51 | $95,221,831,773 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.45 | $95,650,768,730 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.45 | $95,650,768,730 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.45 | $95,650,768,730 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.45 | $95,650,768,730 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.45 | $95,650,768,730 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.45 | $95,650,768,730 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.45 | $95,650,768,730 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.43 | $95,664,532,900 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.43 | $95,664,532,900 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.41 | $95,664,532,900 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.41 | $95,664,532,900 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.41 | $95,664,532,900 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.41 | $95,664,532,900 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.41 | $95,664,532,900 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.40 | $95,601,624,593 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.40 | $95,601,624,593 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.40 | $95,601,624,593 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.40 | $95,601,624,593 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.40 | $95,601,624,593 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.32 | $95,339,803,952 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.34 | $95,521,190,873 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.19 | $95,813,425,957 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.11 | $95,778,498,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.11 | $95,778,498,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.11 | $95,778,498,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $21.10 | $95,937,981,505 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.10 | $95,937,890,596 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.