FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC (FERG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$228.41+2.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FERG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $228 FERG trades at 20× p/e, below its 22× p/e peer median, but our blended $205 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $256–$325. Note: our $205 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($256–$325). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $289.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $38.81 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $89.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $211.93 | 14.2 | 14.96 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$256.00 – $325.00 (median $289.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-09-03
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $140.92 |
| 21.6 |
| 6.52 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $247.98 | 22.2 | 11.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $176.52 | 1.1 | 166.71 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $325.51 | 29.2 | 11.16 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $62.69 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $241.99 | 21.7 | 11.16 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $243.44 | 22.2 | 10.96 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $78.05 | 21.6 | 3.61 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $358.00 | 22.2 | 16.11 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $222.58 | 1.1 | 210.21 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $469.93 | 29.2 | 16.11 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $349.35 | 21.7 | 16.11 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $52.64 | 21.6 | 2.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $457.29 | 22.2 | 20.58 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $258.85 | 1.1 | 244.46 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $600.26 | 29.2 | 20.58 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $446.25 | 21.7 | 20.58 | Analyst | high |