Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC (FERG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$235.65-5.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.92 → 13.91 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FERG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex of $350-$400 million to support growth | Capital spending rises to $350-$400 million to support growth. | Recovered | Capex falls below $350M or exceeds $400M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FERG is an industrial distribution business with a multi-year view tied to steady growth and margin improvement. Its thesis is intact, with recent earnings beats and stated priorities on track, but confidence has eased from high to medium.
The valuation evidence describes FERG as cheap versus peers, with expectations only modestly above the model’s baseline. Pricing is tagged as justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near term, revenue growth and adjusted operating margin are progressing toward management’s goals, and full-year sales guidance was raised. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the record of recent misses makes execution worth monitoring despite recent earnings beats.
The multi-year thesis depends on FERG sustaining mid-single-digit sales growth and moving adjusted operating margin into its guided range. Near term, a reversal of the raised guidance would hurt credibility, while results and guidance from industrial peers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FERG’s business setup is improving, but the thesis still depends on reliable execution amid sector headwinds. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.4% operating margin. |
| Intact |
| Operating margin falls below 9.4% in FY26 |
Operating margin: 10.2% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=9.4% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202610.204548 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continued to drive operating leverage by balancing disciplined cost management with investments for future growth.” “Adjusted operating profit of $932 million (10.7% adjusted operating margin) was 2.9% above last year.” Operating income was $893.000 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve low to mid-single digit revenue growth | A primary condition in FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We expect to continue delivering market outperformance by deploying scale locally and leveraging the long-term growth drivers of water infrastructure, large capital projects, climate and comfort and aging and underbuilt housing.” “Summary of financial results Quarter ended June 30, 2026 Net sales of $8.8 billion were 4.6% ah ead of last year driven by organic revenue growth of 3.8% and acquisition growth of 1.0%, partially offset by 0.2% from a divestment in Canada.” Revenue was $8.751 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.93 → $13.91 · observed estimates
$36.79B → $37.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.93 | $36,791,882,585 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.92 | $37,065,695,071 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.95 | $37,108,491,678 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.92 | $37,099,636,587 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.92 | $37,099,636,587 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.92 | $37,099,636,587 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.92 | $37,099,636,587 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.92 | $37,099,612,187 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.92 | $37,099,454,769 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.92 | $37,099,454,769 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.92 | $37,099,454,769 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.92 | $37,099,454,769 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.92 | $37,099,454,769 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.93 | $37,125,833,538 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.95 | $37,125,977,838 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.90 | $37,070,315,070 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.90 | $37,070,315,070 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.90 | $37,070,315,070 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.90 | $37,070,315,070 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.90 | $37,070,315,070 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.90 | $37,070,315,070 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.90 | $37,070,315,070 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.86 | $37,044,167,757 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.86 | $37,044,167,757 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.88 | $37,104,045,787 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.87 | $37,093,353,480 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.91 | $37,199,834,408 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.91 | $37,199,834,408 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.90 | $37,172,311,279 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.90 | $37,172,311,279 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.90 | $37,172,311,279 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.90 | $37,182,239,850 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.91 | $37,182,239,850 | 7 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.